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- We maintain our BUY rating for VIB and increase our target price (TP) by 4.8% to VND24,000/share. Our higher TP is mainly due to (1) a 1.7% increase in our aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (respective changes of -0.1%/6.4%/0.6%/3.7%/-1.1% in 2023/24/25/26/27F) and (2) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to mid-2024F. These factors outweigh our target P/B from 1.30x to 1.20x.
- Our 2023F NPAT-MI of VND9.6tn (USD400mn; +13.5% YoY) remains roughly the same as our previous forecast as (1) an 8.8% increase in our PPOP forecast from raising our NIM assumption is offset by (2) a 77.2% increase in our provision charge assumption. We expect strong top-line growth and an improvement in CIR to outweigh the impact of surging credit costs.
- VIB has minimal credit exposure to real estate developers and corporate bonds.
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