STB - Lower credit costs despite increasing NPLs; NIM plunges - Earnings Flash

STB released consolidated results for 9M 2023 with TOI of VND19.5tn (USD798mn; +6.3% YoY) and bottom-line net profit of VND5.5tn (USD224mn; +66.0% YoY), achieving 64.1% and 64.3% of our FY2023 forecasts, respectively. Excluding our upfront banca fee assumption, 9M 2023 net profit completed 76.2% of our full-year forecast. On a quarterly basis, STB reported Q3 2023 NPAT of VND1.6tn (-15.1% QoQ; +34.9% YoY). We see no material changes to our earnings forecast for STB, pending a more extensive review.

- 9M 2023 loan growth was 7.6%, and Q3 2023 loan growth was 2.5% QoQ. We note that STB did not have a corporate bond balance as of Q3 2023. 

- 9M 2023 customer deposit growth was strong at 11.7% vs our full-year forecast of 15.0%. In Q3 2023, STB’s CASA ratio increased 0.3 ppts QoQ but decreased 4.1 ppts YoY to 17.3%.

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