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- QTP reported Q1 2025 revenue of VND2.9tn (-3% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND173bn (-24% YoY). The decline in reported NPAT-MI is due to (1) a 13% YoY contraction in price spread, and (2) the effective tax rate rising to 20% in Q1 2025 (vs 10% in Q1 2024). The price spread narrowed as ASP dropped 3% YoY to VND1,621/kWh, which we attribute to the industry CGM price in Q1 2025 averaging VND1,247/kWh (-17% YoY), outweighing the benefit from a higher Qc ratio.
- We see a downside risk to our full-year earnings forecast, as Q1 revenue and reported NPAT are equivalent to 22% and 21% of our 2025 forecasts, respectively. The lower-than-expected reported NPAT-MI is mainly due to the lower-than-expected ASP, which outweighs the benefits from lower-than-expected average material costs.
QTP’s Q1 2025 results
VND bn | Q1 | Q1 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2025F |
Sales volume (million kWh) | 1,796 | 1,796 | 0% | 25% |
Price spread (VND/kWh) | 369 | 321 | -13% | 89% |
ASP (VND/kWh) | 1,676 | 1,621 | -3% | 87% |
Average material cost (VND/kWh) | 1,307 | 1,301 | 0% | 86% |
Revenue | 3,010 | 2,912 | -3% | 22% |
COGS | -2,726 | -2,673 | -2% | 22% |
- In which, depreciation expense | -152 | -137 | -10% | 24% |
- In which, maintenance & other expenses | -175 | -145 | -17% | 34% |
Gross Profit | 284 | 240 | -16% | 21% |
G&A | -23 | -23 | 2% | 19% |
Operating profit (EBIT) | 261 | 216 | -17% | 21% |
Financial income | 0 | 4 | N.M. | 26% |
Financial expenses | -9 | -4 | -53% | N.M. |
In which, interest expense | -6 | -4 | -41% | N.M. |
PBT | 252 | 216 | -14% | 21% |
Income tax expense | -25 | -43 | 72% | 21% |
Reported NPAT | 227 | 173 | -24% | 21% |
Source: QTP, Vietcap
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