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- We maintain our BUY rating for PTB and raise our target price by 22%. We increase our 2023/24F core NPAT-MI (excluding property) by 3%/6% (2025F is unchanged) due to higher forecast stone GPMs, which are partly offset by lower stone revenue projections. We apply our target P/E multiple to 2024F core EPS vs average core 2023F-24F EPS as previously.
- Restocking orders from US retailers should drive a further recovery in revenue starting in Q4 2023. Also, a recent rebound in primary home sales in the US could support exports in H1 2024.
- We forecast wood sales to slump 15% YoY in 2023 before bouncing back 18% YoY in 2024. PTB expects the strength it experienced in early 2022 to be regained in mid-2024.
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