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- PLX released strong Q1 2024 results with revenue of VND75.1tn (+11% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND1.1tn (+73% YoY). The strong performance is mainly due to gross profit margin increasing by 90 bps YoY driven by resilient sales volume (+0.4% YoY, from Q1’s 2023 high base), the relatively stable trend in oil prices in Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023, together with higher gross profit per liter YoY following the 3% increase in regulated costs (VND30 per liter) implemented since early July 2023, which supports PLX to better cover its operating expenses. We note that this result includes a VND26bn inventory provision.
- Q1 2024 results are above our expectations, completing 30% and 30% of our 2024 revenue and reported NPAT-MI forecasts, respectively. We attribute the higher-than-expected reported NPAT-MI to higher-than-expected gross profit per liter (+31% YoY). In the recent AGM, via discussion with management, we understand that PLX’s conservative 2024 PBT guidance of VND2.9tn includes the potential one-off loss from divestment of Petrolimex Laos at VND300bn (per our estimate). Therefore, we foresee slight upside to our earnings forecast for PLX, pending a fuller review, as higher gross profit per liter might potentially slightly outweigh the divestment loss.
- We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for PLX with a target price of VND37,000/share.
Figure 1: PLX’s Q1 2024 results
VND bn | Q1 2023 | Q1 2024 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2024F |
Brent oil price (USD/bbl) * | 82.2 | 81.8 | -0.5% | 99% |
Gasoline price (VND/liter) * | 22,087 | 22,268 | 0.8% | |
Diesel price (VND/liter) * | 21,177 | 20,513 | -3.1% | |
Domestic sales volume (mn m3) | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.4% | 24% |
Revenue | 67,432 | 75,106 | 11.4% | 30% |
Gross profit | 3,559 | 4,669 | 31.2% | 28% |
Selling expense | -2,808 | -3,198 | 13.9% | 26% |
G&A expense | -207 | -238 | 15.2% | 24% |
Operating profit | 545 | 1,233 | 126.3% | 42% |
Financial income | 514 | 450 | -12.4% | 19% |
Financial expenses | -382 | -375 | -1.9% | 39% |
Interest expenses | -233 | -194 | -16.7% | 20% |
Profit/(loss) from JVs, associates | 150 | 111 | -26.1% | 18% |
PBT | 838 | 1,441 | 71.9% | 29% |
Income tax | -171 | -308 | 79.9% | 31% |
Reported NPAT-MI | 620 | 1,073 | 73.2% | 30% |
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| ppts-change |
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Gross profit margin % | 5.3% | 6.2% | +0.9 |
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Sales & marketing % sales | 4.2% | 4.3% | +0.1 |
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General admin % sales | 0.3% | 0.3% | +0.0 |
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EBIT Margin | 0.8% | 1.6% | +0.8 |
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NPAT-MI margin | 0.9% | 1.4% | +0.5 |
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Source: PLX, Vietcap (*average prices)
Figure 2: Platts Singapore price movement (reference point for Vietnamese petroleum retail prices), excluding the impact of the petroleum stabilization fund (USD/bbl)
Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietcap (data as of March 31, 2024)
Figure 3: Vietnamese E5 gasoline and diesel retail prices, including the impact of the petroleum stabilization fund (VND/liter)
Source: PLX, Vietcap (data as of March 31, 2024)
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