PC1 [OUTPERFORM +11.0%] - Earnings set to nearly double YoY in 2024 - Update

- We raise our target price (TP) for PC1 by 15% and upgrade our rating from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPEFORM.

- Our higher TP is due to our 6% higher aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI forecast and the positive effect of rolling our horizon to end-2024. Our higher aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI projection is mainly due to (1) our 39% higher aggregate 2023-2027F earnings forecast from nickel following higher-than-expected 9M 2023 results and our 6% higher nickel average selling price (ASP) assumptions for 2024-2027F (see pages 12-13) and (2) our lower aggregate 2023-2027F SG&A projection following lower-than-expected 9M 2023 results. 

- We forecast 2023F reported NPAT-MI to drop by 25% YoY despite a 13% YoY increase in gross profit (as contributions from the Nomura industrial park (IP) and nickel outweigh the 48% YoY/18% YoY lower gross profits from power construction and power generation, respectively). We anticipate higher YoY SG&A expenses, financial expenses, and minorities interest to weigh on 2023F earnings. 

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