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MBB released its consolidated results for Q1 2025 with TOI of VND15.3tn (USD589mn; +28% YoY) and PBT of VND8.4tn (USD323mn; +45% YoY), completing 25% and 26% of our respective full-year forecasts. Overall, MBB’s strong earnings beat our current expectations, driven by robust top-line growth and lower-than-expected CIR. However, asset quality slightly deteriorated QoQ with a lower-than-expected provisioning buffer.
- Q1 2025 credit growth was 2.3% (below the system-wide level of 3.9%). Q1 2025 corporate bonds decreased 7% QoQ and contributed 4% to total credit. Additionally, lending to real estate businesses accounted for 9.0% of MBB’s Q1 2025 consolidated loan book (vs 8.3% in 2024).
- Q1 2025 deposit growth was 1.2%. The Q1 2025 CASA ratio was 35.9% (-3.4 ppt QoQ; -0.7 ppts YoY), which was the second highest level among banks under our coverage. MBB’s 2025 funding growth guidance is 25%.
- Q1 2025 NIM was 4.19% (-5 bps QoQ; +14 bps YoY) vs our full-year forecast of 4.05%. While IEA yield was flat QoQ, funding costs edged up by 6 bps QoQ, which we attribute mostly due to the QoQ drop in CASA ratio. While most banks reported a QoQ contraction in IEA yield due to loan pricing competition, MBB’s IEA yield was flat QoQ. We think this could have been partly driven by improving debt collection activities and stronger income from short-term credit for the trade segment, given the front-loading activities.
- Q1 2025 NOII was VND3.6tn (+23% YoY), completing 27% of our full-year forecast and tracking higher than our expectation mainly due to robust fee income and a 238% YoY surge in recovery income from written-off bad debts.
- Q1 2025 CIR was 25.8% (-3.5 ppts YoY; slightly lower than our forecast of 30.7%).
- Bad debt metrics increased QoQ with a lower provisioning buffer. The Q1 2025 NPL ratio was 1.84% (+22 bps QoQ; -64 bps YoY). Q1 2025 group 2 loans to gross loans was 1.91% (+34 bps QoQ; -38 bps YoY). Q1 2025 consolidated LLR was 75.3% (-17 ppts QoQ; -5 ppts YoY). Given MBB’s targets to lift its LLR to 100% and control the NPL ratio below 1.70%, we think there could be upward pressure on MBB’s provisioning expenses in the coming quarters.
MBB’s consolidated Q1 2025 results
VND bn | Q1 2024 | Q1 2025 | YoY |
NII | 9,062 | 11,692 | 29.0% |
Non-interest income | 2,954 | 3,631 | 22.9% |
TOI | 12,017 | 15,323 | 27.5% |
OPEX | (3,514) | (3,950) | 12.4% |
PPOP | 8,502 | 11,373 | 33.8% |
Provision expenses | (2,707) | (2,986) | 10.3% |
PBT | 5,795 | 8,386 | 44.7% |
NPAT-MI | 4,533 | 6,568 | 44.9% |
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Credit growth** | 0.7% | 2.7% | 2.0 ppts |
Deposit growth** | -1.5% | 1.2% | 2.7 ppts |
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NIM | 4.05% | 4.19% | 14 bps |
Interest-earning asset yield | 7.26% | 7.02% | -24 bps |
Cost of funds | 3.73% | 3.26% | -47 bps |
CASA ratio* | 36.6% | 35.9% | -0.7 ppts |
CASA ratio plus term deposits in FX | 37.8% | 37.0% | -0.8 ppts |
CIR | 29.2% | 25.8% | -3.5 ppts |
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NPLs / Gross loans | 2.49% | 1.84% | -64 bps |
Group 2 loans / Gross loans | 2.29% | 1.91% | -38 bps |
Accrued interest / IEAs | 0.98% | 0.97% | -1 bps |
Source: MBB, Vietcap — *CASA volume includes demand deposits and margin deposits; ** Q1 2025 credit and deposit growth is QoQ growth.
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