GAS [OUTPERFORM +13.6%] - Higher transportation revenue to outweigh lower IP volume - Update

- We raise our target price (TP) for GAS by 2% to VND82,000/share and upgrade our rating from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM. Our higher TP is due to a 2% increase in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI and the positive impact of rolling our TP to mid-2025. 

- We increase our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast by 2% (respective changes of +5%/-3%/-5%/-2%/+11% for 2024/25/26/27/28F– details on page 3) mainly due to 38% higher aggregate transportation revenue outweighing ~12% lower aggregate IP gas sales revenue to industrial parks (IP).

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to decline ~5% YoY due to flat YoY fuel oil (FO) price and gas volume assumptions and a VND664bn estimated loss from the Thi Vai LNG terminal with increased volume to 380 million cbm (vs VND1.0tn loss and 50 mn cbm as previously assumed). 

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