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- The Vietnam State Treasury (VST) plans to issue VND400tn (USD17.0bn) of G-bonds in 2023, which is unchanged vs the 2022 plan but double the actual issuance amount last year.
- In January, the VST issued VND32.8tn (USD1.4bn) of G-bonds, completing 30.4% of its Q1 2023 issuance plan. Bond yields declined around 30-40 bps during the month in both the primary and secondary markets due to 1) relatively higher reinvestment demand as we estimate around VND10.9tn (USD464mn) of G-bonds expired during the month (the highest monthly amount since September 2022) and 2) falling global bond yields thanks to easing US inflation. As of end-January, 5Y and 10Y bond yields were quoted at 4.28% (-42 bps MoM) and 4.42% (- 38 bps MoM), respectively, in the secondary market.
- The US 10-year treasury yield rebounded after the Fed raised rates in early February, which could pose upward pressure on G-bond yields. Nevertheless, we expect the systemwide liquidity will improve after the Tet Holiday as demand for VND transactions should cool and as credit demand could be slow at the beginning of the year — especially amid the higher interest rate environment.
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