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BID [OUTPERFORM +18.1%] - Better-controlled asset quality supports lower credit costs - Update

Company Research

29 Nov 2023

- We cut our target price (TP) for BID by 3.3% to VND46,400/share and maintain an OUTPERFORM rating.

- Our lower TP is due to (1) an 11.2% decrease in our projection for aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (respective decreases of -11.0%/-9.6%/-12.0%/-12.2%/-10.7% in 2023/24/25/26/27F), and (2) a decrease in our assumption for BID’s target P/B from 2.3x to 2.2x, which are partly offset by a decrease in our cost of equity for BID due to an updated beta and rolling our TP forward to end-2024.

- The decrease in 2023-2027F earnings is primarily due to a 7.6% aggregate decrease in NII following our downward revision in average NIM assumption from 3.09% to 2.85%, which is partly offset by a 3.9% aggregate increase in NFI (including gains from FX trading) and a 2.2% aggregate decrease in provision expenses.

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