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- We raise our target price (TP) by 4% and upgrade our rating for ACV from OUTPERFORM to BUY. ACV’s share price has declined 11% in the last three months amid market correction.
- Our higher target price is driven by our TP horizon rolling to mid-2026 from end-2025, which outweighs higher FX losses of VND1.0tn (vs VND374bn previously) from a stronger JPY/VND appreciation assumption of 10%/1% YoY (vs 4% p.a. previously), based on Bloomberg consensus. We revise our respective 2025F/26F/27F NPAT-MI forecasts by -4%/+1%/0%.
- We maintain our assumed timeline for ACV to reverse most of its provisions for doubtful receivables in 2025-2028F, with projected reversals of VND500bn in 2025F. Although ACV booked additional bad debt provisions in Q1 2025, we expect a reversal later in the year.
- Our TP puts ACV’s respective 2025F/26F EV/EBITDA multiples at 18.3x/15.8x vs the 2017-2020 average level of 15.8x.
- Downside risks: Higher-than-expected bad debt provisions or capex; slower-than-expected airport capacity expansion; lower-than-expected passenger numbers.
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