We attended VPB’s Q2 2026 investor meeting on July 28. We found management’s liquidity outlook more constructive, with market-1 funding rates likely near their peak, system liquidity beginning to improve, and some scope for easing in Q4. The bank remains confident of meeting its AGM profit target, supported by sector-leading growth at the parent bank, stronger group synergies, and manageable asset quality.
Below are the highlights:
1. Macro view by the bank
- Investment-led growth should remain the key driver, supported by public investment, with GDP growth guided at 8–9% in H2 2026.
- Elevated interest rates are expected to moderate credit and housing demand, but support deposit mobilization and USD/VND stability in H2. The bank expects no US Federal Reserve rate hikes in H2 2026. CD rates have likely peaked with headroom for slightly easing in Q4 2026.
- System credit growth is projected at 16.5–18% in 2026. Real-estate price growth is moderating, while structural demand remains concentrated in affordable and social housing.
- Inflation is forecast at 4.5–5.5% in H2, as lower oil prices vs H1 are partly offset by higher construction-material costs.
- The trade balance should improve in H2, although investment-driven imports and geopolitical risks remain key pressures.
2. Credit growth
- Parent bank credit growth in H1 2026 was 25%, far above the system-wide level of 8%. Management expects H2 to slow and the narrowing credit-deposit gap to improve liquidity ratios.
- H1 growth by segment: retail +15%; household business 17%; corporates including SME led the growth on a diversified sector base. VPB continues to enhance the quality of its SME portfolio by rebalancing its mix between upper and micro SMEs.
- Real estate: exposure +16.6% QoQ; RE and construction credit to be maintained below 35% of the book (vs ~33% in Q2 2026). Industrial parks +~87% off a low base on the FDI surge; social housing ~15x from a very low base. Residential is concentrated in large cities like Hanoi, HCMC, and Hai Phong with robust leasing demand.
- Mega projects: The SBV has excluded 18 nationally significant projects from credit limits, freeing lending capacity. VPB has no plan for direct funding yet, targeting working capital in the contractor and supplier ecosystem instead, suitable with the funding capacity of the bank.
3. NIM
- NIM guidance of 4.3-4.5% in H2 2026, broadly in line with the ~4.4% full-year target (Q1 2026 NIM: 4.53%), per the bank.
4. Funding & capital
- VPB closed a USD1.44bn sustainability-linked syndicated loan with SMBC and 15 international lenders in June, with a further ~USD1.2bn pipeline targeted for H2. Outstanding offshore borrowings currently stand at ~USD5bn, while the sharp decline in swap premiums over the past three months has materially reduced the cost of converting USD funding into VND.
- The full-year funding growth target is ~35% (vs 23% in H1). Delivery is supported by corporate CDs, the Loc Thinh Vuong program, and CASA expansion via digital channels including Apple Pay.
- Capital plan: A stock dividend from retained earnings is planned for Q3 or Q4 2026, pending authorities’ approval. Private placement: currently in a proactive discussion with the potential buyer.
- Basel III: Management positions VPB as an early adopter with high readiness on LCR and NSFR. They expressed confidence in meeting the new safety ratio requirements.
5. Non-interest income
- Net fee income more than doubled YoY in H1 2026, driven by banking service fees, OPES insurance premiums, VPX advisory, brokerage, treasury, and investment-banking activities.
- Bad-debt recovery income increased 26% YoY, with FE Credit contributing nearly 40%, while lower GB Bank-related costs provided an additional uplift and helped offset NIM pressure from higher funding costs.
6. Asset quality & risk management
- Risk impact is seen as manageable through H2 2026. NPL ratio Cir 31 in 2026 to remain below 2.5% (vs 2.03% in Q2 2026). VPB is upgrading its credit decisioning system.
- RWA grew only 6.5% against credit growth of 12.6% on a QoQ basis, on lower risk weights from social housing and higher-rated IP developers.
7. Subsidiaries
- VPX (VPBank Securities) is now ranked #8 on HOSE by market share (targeting 4.8% full year vs 3.6% in H1 2026). Active customers +~49% YTD; margin balances +12% in H1, with margin lending rates raised in Q2 to protect spreads. DCM volume was VND18.7tn in H1, with ~VND17tn targeted for H2; H1 ROE was ~14%. Offshore funding pipeline: USD50mn in September and another USD200mn syndication loan in H2. Management reiterated the 2026 PBT target (+40% YoY), with DCM revenue and bond investment as the buffer.
- FE Credit: Loan growth of 5.3% and PBT of VND153bn in H1 2026 was below management’s expectations due to a lag in consumer purchasing power and challenging macro conditions. This is the clearest underdelivery against the FY2026 plan set at Q1 (PBT ~VND1.2tn, NPL below 10%) and remains our key watch item.
- GPBank: H1 2026 PBT of VND730bn, ahead of its six-month target. Still unconsolidated due to restructuring program, so not yet reflected in group earnings.
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