Key changes in forecasts
For VIC, we raise our 2025/26/27F PBT forecasts by 38%/21%/24% due to stronger anticipated property sales. For VHM, we lift our 2025/26/27F NPAT-MI forecasts by 10%/12%/15%, mainly driven by a more positive presales outlook for Green Paradise. We raise VHM’s aggregate 2025–27F presales forecast by 31% on our projections for faster presales at Green Paradise and Apollo City, as well as an earlier projected launch of Phuoc Vinh Tay in 2027F. For VRE, we increase 2025F NPAT-MI by 41% due to factoring in the October 2025 transfer of VCC Nguyen Chi Thanh, with 2026/27F up 9%/4% due to higher financial & other income.
Valuations and ratings
We downgrade VIC to SELL from MARKET PERFORM, upgrade our rating for VHM to OUTPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM, and maintain MARKET PERFORM for VRE.
We raise our target prices (TP) for VIC, VHM, and VRE by 64%, 20%, and 2%, respectively. Our higher TPs are mainly driven by 1) VHM’s higher valuations for Green Paradise, Apollo City, and Cam Lam, and the inclusion of industrial park projects, 2) VIC’s higher valuations for property sales and the addition of the energy segment, and 3) the overall positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2026.
We expect Vietnam’s strengthening infrastructure outlook to underpin the presales momentum of VHM’s mega-scale projects. VRE’s core earnings should continue to be supported by resilient retail leasing and incremental contributions from new property sales.
For VIC, we continue to expect new property project rollouts, strong EV deliveries, and ongoing funding support from the Chairman. While the group’s expansion into new sectors — including several large-scale project proposals in energy and infrastructure — could strengthen its long-term prospects, we believe their medium-term earnings contributions will remain limited. Given these factors, the current share price, which has doubled over the past three months, appears to have moved well ahead of the company’s fundamental earnings outlook, in our view.
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