- We reiterate our SELL rating for VIC, while raising our target price by 8% to VND110,000/share.
- Our higher target price is mainly due to (1) higher valuations for property sales and hospitality segments, (2) a lower YE2026F net debt balance, and (3) the positive effect of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2027, partly offset by (4) a lower valuation for the industrial segment.
- We forecast 2026F PBT of VND47.2tn (USD1.8bn; +78% YoY), driven mainly by property sales backlog, new presales, Chairman grants, and assumed divestment income, offsetting continued industrial EBIT losses and financial expenses. We raise our 2026F PBT forecast by 79% mainly on higher property sales and hospitality profits and a lower financial expenses projection, while we assume no one-off non-cash gain from the VinFast (VFTP) manufacturing spin-off will be recognized in VIC’s P&L. We forecast 2026F NPAT-MI of VND26.8tn (USD1.0bn; +136% YoY).
- We forecast VIC’s net debt (excluding VHM) to decline YoY in 2026F, primarily reflecting the deconsolidation of VFTP’s debt (Appendix 1), and then will increase by VND17.3tn (USD658mn) in 2027F, and VND21.2tn (USD806mn) in 2028F. We project VIC’s net D/E at 168%/151%/130% in 2026/27/28F.
- Upside potential: Stronger-than-expected property presales; additional capital raising avenues; accelerated commencement of large-scale energy and infrastructure projects.
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