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VIB - Continuing weak credit expansion pressures earnings growth - Earnings Flash

Company Research

27 Jul 2026

VIB released its Q2 2026 results, reporting 6M TOI of VND11.2tn (USD424mn; +15.5% YoY) and PBT of VND5.2tn (USD197mn; +3% YoY) completing 46% of our full-year forecasts for both metrics. Q2’s results alone delivered PBT of VND2.4tn (USD91mn; -8% YoY; -15% QoQ). Overall, VIB’s core performance in H1 2026 tracked below our forecast, with Q1 earnings supported by one-off card-related gains and Q2 supported by a one-off bancassurance fee. We attribute the underlying weakness mainly to subdued retail credit demand. Although asset quality and liquidity remained broadly stable QoQ, continued NPL formation and weak retail growth could further weigh on earnings in H2 2026, implying downside risk to our forecasts.

  • Credit growth continued to lag the system level with a large concentration in the real estate & financial service segments: H1 2026 credit growth was 4.0%, and despite a higher pace of credit disbursement in Q2, this figure was still lower than system-wide credit growth of 8.5%. The corporate segment continued to be the main source of growth (+17.8% in 6M 2026) while the retail segment’s growth was negative at –2.0%. Real estate developers and financial services loans were the two key growth drivers in H1, with growth of 57.9% and 11.7%, respectively. 
  • Strong CASA reduction under an elevated interest rate environment while fundings had to shift more to the CDs channel: H1 2026 customer deposit growth remained relatively flat vs Q1 (H1 7.8% vs 7.4% in Q1 2026), while total funding growth (including customer deposits and valuable papers) was 7.8% (+1.3 ppts QoQ) when the bank utilized more funding through the CDs channel. Notably, VIB’s Q2 2026 CASA ratio decreased significantly by 2.2 ppts QoQ to 11.9% - the lowest level since 2021.
  • NIM rebounded QoQ: VIB’s Q2 2026 NIM rebounded strongly 17 bps QoQ to 3.11% (-1 bps YoY). The main driver of this quarter’s NIM recovery came from (1) a 1 ppt QoQ expansion in LDR to 79% and (2) a 71-bps QoQ spike in the bank’s IEA yield when lending rates reflecting higher deposit rates outweighed a 57-bps QoQ increase in funding costs.
  • NOII dropped QoQ from a high base: H1 2026 NOII was VND2.8tn (USD107mn; +40.2% YoY). Though VIB recognized a significantly high bancassurance income of VND790bn (+699% QoQ) in Q2 2026, NOII reduced 45.1% QoQ given strong one-off income from the card segment in Q1 2026.
  • Asset quality and credit costs were broadly stable QoQ: The Q2 2026 NPL ratio decreased 1 bps QoQ and 63 bps YoY to 2.93%. Group 2 loans over gross loans slightly increased back by 1 bps QoQ to 2.56%. The bank has continued to maintain its credit cost ratio around 1.3% thus the LLR ratio was also maintained at 43.6% (+0.5 ppts QoQ; +6.4 ppts YoY).   
  • CIR temporarily improved given strong NOII: H1 2026 CIR was 31.7% (-5.8 ppts YoY). The continued low CIR was driven mainly by lower operating costs and the one-off item recognized in Q1 & Q2. We note, however, that once one-off NOII fades in coming quarters, CIR could revert to a higher level, given the bank's currently weaker-than-expected core operating performance.
  • Safety ratio continued to be well maintained in accordance with SBV requirements: The CAR under the Basel III Standardized Approach stayed around 12%. The LDR stood at 79%, while the ratio of short-term funds used for medium- and long-term loans was 28%. Additionally, the NFSR reached 103%, outperforming the Basel III standard of over 100%.

VIB’s consolidated H1 2026 results

VND bn

H1 2025

H1 2026

YoY

Q2 2025

Q2 2026

YoY

NII

                   7,706 

                8,407 

9.1%

               3,969 

                 4,368 

10.1%

Non-interest income

                    2,012 

                2,822 

40.2%

                1,148 

                  1,000 

-12.9%

TOI

                    9,718 

               11,228 

15.5%

               5,117 

                 5,368 

4.9%

OPEX

               (3,645)

             (3,557)

-2.4%

            (1,886)

               (1,704)

-9.6%

PPOP 

                   6,073 

                 7,672 

26.3%

                3,231 

                 3,664 

13.4%

Provision expenses

                (1,056)

            (2,486)

135.3%

               (635)

                (1,281)

101.7%

PBT

                    5,017 

                5,186 

3.4%

               2,596 

                  2,383 

-8.2%

NPAT-MI 

                    4,013 

                 4,147 

3.3%

                2,077 

                  1,905 

-8.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loan growth**

9.9%

4.0%

-5.9 ppts

6.6%

2.8%

-3.8 ppts

Deposit growth** 

10.2%

7.8%

-2.4 ppts

8.0%

0.4%

-7.6 ppts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NIM

3.03%

3.01%

-2 bps

3.12%

3.11%

-1 bps

Interest-earning asset yield

6.73%

7.88%

115 bps

6.84%

8.26%

142 bps

Cost of funds

4.09%

5.32%

122 bps

4.13%

5.62%

149 bps

CASA ratio*

16.8%

11.9%

-4.9 ppts

16.8%

11.9%

-4.9 ppts

CASA ratio plus term deposits in FX   

21.4%

18.6%

-2.9 ppts

21.4%

18.6%

-2.9 ppts

CIR

37.5%

31.7%

-5.8 ppts

36.9%

31.7%

-5.1 ppts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NPLs / Gross loans  

3.56%

2.93%

-63 bps

3.56%

2.93%

-63 bps

Group 2 loans / Gross loans 

2.90%

2.56%

-34 bps

2.90%

2.56%

-34 bps

Accrued interest / IEAs 

0.29%

0.50%

21 bps

0.29%

0.50%

21 bps

Source: VIB, Vietcap — *CASA volume included demand deposits and margin deposits; ** Q2 2025 and Q2 2026 loan and deposit growth is QoQ growth; H1 2025 and H1 2026 loan and deposit growth is 6M growth.

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