VCB released its H1 2026 results with TOI of VND47.6tn (USD1.81bn; +35.3% YoY) and PBT of VND29.2tn (USD1.11bn; +33.5% YoY), fulfilling 56% and 55% of our respective FY2026 forecasts. This implies an impressive Q2 2026 PBT of VND17.4tn (+47.6% QoQ, +57.9% YoY). We estimate that Q2 2026 results included a VND1.9tn reversal of provision expenses related to certain corporate bonds that were booked in Q4 2025. The bank's earnings results were stronger than our expectations due to better-than-expected NIM and NOII. We see potential upside to our current forecasts, pending a more extensive review. As highlighted in our previous updates, an acceleration in VCB’s earnings growth back to double-digit level should trigger a positive market response given low investor expectations. Additionally, as the bank continues to push for its 6.5% private placement plan, a more aggressive posture in terms of earnings recognition is appropriate.
- H1 2026 credit growth was 5.0%, trailing system-wide credit growth of 8.5% and implied meaningfully slower credit growth of 0.2% in Q2 vs 4.8% in Q1.
- H1 2026 customer deposit growth was 3.4%, continuing to trail credit growth. The Q2 2026 CASA ratio was 33.9% (-0.3 ppts QoQ, -3.0 ppts YoY), remaining among the highest in the sector.
- H1 2026 NII of VCB rose 32.1% YoY, driven by strong NIM improvement and solid credit growth. H1 2026 NIM was 2.92% (+31 bps YoY) vs our full-year forecast of 2.75%.
- On a quarterly basis, NIM continued to improve to 2.97% (+11 bps QoQ, +33 bps YoY), driven by an improvement in the interest-earning asset yield (+46 bps QoQ, +96 bps YoY), partially offset by an increase in cost of funds (+39 bps QoQ, +68 bps YoY).
- Asset quality remained best-in-class with an NPL ratio of 0.61% (-1 bps QoQ, -39 bps YoY) in Q2 2026 vs our year-end 2026 forecast of 0.65%. The Group 2 loans ratio was 0.25% (+2 bps QoQ, flat YoY) in Q2 2026. VCB did not write off any bad debts in H1 2026.
- H1 2026 annualized credit cost was 0.35% vs 0.21% in H1 2025. We note H1 2026 credit costs included an estimated VND1.9tn reversal of provision expenses related to certain corporate bonds that were booked in Q4 2025 while H1 2025 credit costs which included a VND1.0tn reversal of provision expenses on interbank loans. In addition, VCB’s Q2 2026 LLR improved to 279% vs 253% in the previous quarter and continued to be the strongest in the sector.
- H1 2026 NOII was VND10.8tn (+47.7% YoY), completing 76% of our full-year forecast. Net other income soared 170.7% YoY to VND4.9tn, likely driven by robust recovery income. Meanwhile, FX trading gains and pure NFI saw solid YoY growth of 4.7% and 8.2% to VND3.8tn and VND1.8tn, respectively.
- H1 2026 CIR declined by 1.0 ppts YoY to 32.2% vs our full-year forecast of 34.0% due to a 35.3% YoY increase in TOI outweighing a 31.3% growth in OPEX.
VCB’s consolidated H1 2026 results
VND bn | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | YoY | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 | YoY |
NII | 27,847 | 36,793 | 32.1% | 14,160 | 19,142 | 35.2% |
Non-interest income | 7,286 | 10,759 | 47.7% | 3,708 | 7,230 | 95.0% |
TOI | 35,133 | 47,551 | 35.3% | 17,868 | 26,372 | 47.6% |
OPEX | (11,677) | (15,333) | 31.3% | (6,025) | (8,449) | 40.2% |
PPOP | 23,456 | 32,218 | 37.4% | 11,844 | 17,922 | 51.3% |
Provision expenses | (1,562) | (2,996) | 91.8% | (810) | (503) | -37.9% |
PBT | 21,894 | 29,222 | 33.5% | 11,034 | 17,420 | 57.9% |
NPAT-MI | 17,528 | 23,999 | 36.9% | 8,832 | 14,542 | 64.7% |
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Loan growth** | 7.4% | 5.1% | -2.3 ppts | 6.1% | 0.2% | -5.9 ppts |
Deposit growth** | 4.8% | 3.4% | -1.4 ppts | 5.1% | 2.8% | -2.4 ppts |
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NIM | 2.62% | 2.92% | 31 bps | 2.64% | 2.97% | 33 bps |
Interest-earning asset yield | 4.68% | 5.45% | 77 bps | 4.70% | 5.66% | 96 bps |
Cost of funds | 2.30% | 2.80% | 50 bps | 2.30% | 2.99% | 68 bps |
CASA ratio* | 37.0% | 33.9% | -3.0 ppts | 37.0% | 33.9% | -3.0 ppts |
CASA ratio plus term deposits in FX | 43.3% | 40.7% | -2.5 ppts | 43.3% | 40.7% | -2.5 ppts |
CIR | 33.2% | 32.2% | -1.0 ppts | 33.7% | 32.0% | -1.7 ppts |
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NPLs / Gross loans | 1.00% | 0.61% | -39 bps | 1.00% | 0.61% | -39 bps |
Group 2 loans / Gross loans | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0 bps | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0 bps |
Accrued interest / IEAs | 0.40% | 0.43% | 3 bps | 0.40% | 0.43% | 3 bps |
Source: VCB, Vietcap — *CASA volume includes demand deposits and margin deposits; ** H1 2026 and H1 2025 loan and deposit growth are H1 growth.
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