TPB - High deposit growth negatively affects NIM - Earnings Flash

TPB released strong 2022 results with TOI of VND15.6tn (USD666.0mn; +15.5% YoY) and bottom-line net profit of VND6.3tn (USD267.0mn; +29.7% YoY), achieving 102.3% and 108.8% of our FY 2022 forecasts, respectively. The increase in NPAT was mainly driven by (1) a 14.5% YoY increase in NII, (2) 74.5% YoY growth in pure NFI, (3) a 185.7% YoY surge in net other income — of which VND622bn was recovery from bad debt — and (4) 36.6% lower provision expenses. These factors outweighed (1) the weak performance in investment securities — which decreased 69.8% YoY — and (2) higher growth in OPEX.

However, on a QoQ basis, Q4 2022 was relatively weak. Q4 2022 PPOP was VND2.0tn (-18.2% QoQ & -8.5% YoY) and NPAT was VND1.5tn (-11.2% QoQ & +15.6% YoY) because of (1) the decrease in income from trading FX and investment securities (-133.0% QoQ) and (2) a 26.7% QoQ increase in OPEX that outweighed 65.1% lower provision expenses. We see slight downside risk to our earnings forecasts for TPB, pending a more extensive review.