We lower our 2025–30F power consumption forecast by 0.2% on average, reflecting our reduced demand growth expectations for 2025F at 4.5% (vs 5.5% previously). However, we maintain our 2026/27F power demand forecast of 7.5%/9.0%, respectively, based on our expected accelerated GDP growth forecast of 8.5%/8.8%, up from an estimated 8.1% in 2025F.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) guides substantial power demand/production growth in 2026F. On November 28, 2025, the MoIT officially issued the National Power System Operation Plan for 2026 with base case power production of 8.5% YoY, and up to 14.1% YoY in the strongest case. This strengthens our projected 7.5% YoY demand expansion in 2026F.
We forecast the average CGM price to rebound 26% YoY in 2026F, mainly driven by our expected Capacity Add-On (CAN) price normalization of VND305/kWh (6x YoY, similar to the 2021-24 average) and YoY flat System Marginal Price (SMP) assumption. Flat SMP is because we forecast potential stronger hydropower output to offset stronger demand growth and rising coal/gas prices (please see page 7).
We estimate that EVN will completely clear its USD2bn accumulated loss in 2027F which will strengthen cashflow and FX loss payments to power plants. We estimate EVN to make profit of VND12.4tn in 2025F (+72% YoY), driven by a 4.8% retail electricity price hike in May 2025 and higher cheap hydropower volume, while expecting additional 5%/5% hikes in 2026/27F to clear EVN’s cumulative 2022-23 losses (USD2bn).
We maintain our projection for the 2026F average gas price to power plants to slightly rise +3% YoY to USD11.5/MMBTU (driven by higher LNG contribution) but expect it to stabilize at around USD11-12/MMBTU in 2026-29F, supporting demand growth from power plants amid EVN’s ability to further raise retail electricity prices. Please see our GAS - November Update, dated November 12, 2025, for more details.
We maintain our mixed coal price forecast, projecting a 4% increase in 2026 after an 8% YoY decrease in 2025. Please see our Energy Sector Update, dated September 23, 2025, for more details.
Powered by Froala Editor
