- We maintain our BUY rating and raise our target price (TP) by 2.7% to VND42,600/share as we roll our TP horizon forward to mid-2027, the positive impact of which is partially offset by our lower aggregate 2026-2030F earnings forecast by 3.9% (respective changes of -2.9%/-4.9%/-3.6%/-3.9%/-4.2% for 2026/27/28/29/30F).
- Given TCB’s strong fee income generation and robust LLR, the bank remains well-positioned to navigate through near-term macro headwinds that have weighed on margins to deliver resilient earnings growth in 2026.
- The bank is trading at a trailing P/B of 1.36x, in line with its five-year average.
- Downside risks: Weaker-than-expected NIM, higher-than-expected NPL.
- Upside catalysts: Higher-than-expected credit growth.
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