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- We raise our target price (TP) for SSI by 15.3% to VND27,200/share and maintain a BUY rating.
- Our higher TP is mainly driven by (1) a 13.5% increase in our projection for aggregate 2023-2027F NPAT-MI (15.5%/17.2%/14.4%/12.5%/11.3% for 2023/24/25/26/27F, respectively), (2) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2024, and (3) an increasing our assumption for SSI’s target P/B from 2.1x to 2.3x.
- We increase our projection for SSI’s 2023F NPAT-MI by 15.5% to VND1.9tn (USD79mn; +10.4% YoY) mainly due to (1) an 8.9% increase in brokerage revenue, (2) 7.9% increase in gains from FVTPL, and (3) 21.9% decrease in losses from FVTPL due to lower-than-expected Q1 2023 results. Our forecast for 2023F PBT is VND2.3tn, implying 10.4% YoY growth vs SSI’s target of 20.4% YoY growth.
- Upside/(downside) risks: Higher/(lower)-than-expected market turnover and margin lending; large net gains/(losses) in SSI’s FVTPL portfolio.
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