- We reduce our target price (TP) for SAB by 8% to VND54,300/share while maintaining a BUY rating. Our lower TP mainly reflects (1) the inclusion of a DCF-based valuation alongside our target P/E approach, and (2) our 2% lower P/E valuation as we cut our target P/E 12% to 14.7x from 16.7x, reflecting SAB’s lower peer median TTM PE vs our previous Update Report, although this is partly offset by an 11.5% increase in our aggregate 2026F-30F NPAT-MI forecast and the positive impact of rolling our valuation forward to mid-2027.
- We project a 3.6% EPS CAGR in 2026–31F, underpinned by a 4.0% beer revenue CAGR despite excise tax hikes starting in 2027 (5 ppts per year to 90% by 2031F).
- SAB is a compelling defensive stock due to a solid financial position and cash flow with expected cash dividends to remain elevated at VND5,000/share (11.5% yield) p.a. in 2026-31F.
- Downside risks: Heightened competition; weaker beer consumption; higher input costs; higher advertising & promotional (A&P) spending.
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