Q1 2026 primary transactions in Hanoi and HCMC increased 15% YoY, based on our estimates derived from CBRE’s charts (combined condo and landed property segments). In our view, YoY growth in Q1 2026 suggests relatively resilient demand despite higher mortgage rates. We are starting to observe early signs of real estate activity picking up after the Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday with new project launches such as VHM’s Hai Van Bay (Da Nang) and NLG’s Sol Garden (Hai Phong), along with next phase launches of Masterise’s Global City (HCMC) and Phu My Hung’s Harmonie (HCMC), as well as the market sounding for VHM’s Global Gate Ha Long (Quang Ninh) and ground breaking ceremony for VHM’s Saigon Park (HCMC).
We expect primary market transactions to sustain YoY growth in 2026F. Key growth drivers include (i) sustained real demand and selective long-term investment demand, (ii) increased new supply, (iii) progressive infrastructure development, and (iv) more attractive sales incentives from developers to cushion YoY higher mortgage rates. This reflects our base case scenario, under which we expect interest rate conditions to gradually stabilize in H2 2026F and macro volatility remains contained.
Toward the end of 2026F, we expect (1) real estate activity to continue ramping up following its early resumption since end-March, (2) buyer sentiment to improve as rate conditions gradually stabilize in H2 2026F, and (3) developers to maintain sales incentives. Collectively, these factors should support our view for a pickup in primary transactions in the coming quarters, although the recovery is likely to remain uneven across projects and segments.
We favor KDH and NLG as our top picks, underpinned by attractive valuations, strong brand equity, healthy balance sheets, and visible presales/earnings growth backed by solid project pipelines. We believe the market has yet to fully price in several value-unlocking catalysts, including: KDH’s visible earnings upcycle (53%/39% NPAT-MI growth in 2026F/27F) and monetization potential from its sizeable >500 ha core HCMC land bank, as well as NLG’s emerging growth cycle, supported by strong presales momentum (21% YoY growth in 2026F, following a 2.3x YoY surge in 2025) and increasing project rollouts from its ~550 ha land bank (our estimate) in HCMC and high-growth provinces.
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