- We attended PVT’s Analyst Meeting on July 31, 2026, where management highlighted that the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz should continue to support PVT’s earnings momentum for the next two quarters. However, management also noted that fleet growth could outpace trade demand growth in 2027, and expected normalization of shipping activity through the Strait could lead to lower tanker rates by ~30% YoY.
- Our view: We see slight upside potential to our 2026 earnings forecast. H1 2026 reported NPAT-MI and core NPAT-MI rose 72% and 64% YoY, respectively, completing 58% and 56% of our full-year forecasts. We currently see insignificant changes to our 2027 earnings forecast, pending a fuller review. During 7M 2026, time-charter rates increased 74% YoY for Aframax crude oil tankers, 38% YoY for medium-range product tankers, and 32% YoY for Handy chemical tankers, significantly higher than our forecast of ~10-20% YoY. Therefore, a 30% decline would represent normalization from a high base.
CEO appointment process underway; operations remain unaffected. Management indicated that the appointment process for a new CEO is underway, although no announcement date had been confirmed at the time of the meeting. Management stated that ongoing business operations have not been affected during the transition.
A potential VLCC investment for Nghi Son remains under preliminary discussion. Following the AGM, PVT has been in discussions with PetroVietnam and Nghi Son Refinery management regarding a dedicated vessel to serve Nghi Son’s crude oil import requirements. Negotiations are currently focused on the investment structure, route-sharing arrangements, and operating model. Management noted that a VLCC investment requires substantial capex and that would depend on project-level investment returns. No firm commitment or timeline was provided. If PVT secures an attractive long-term arrangement with Nghi Son, the project could support a VLCC investment and provide long-term upside to our forecast.
The 2026 fleet expansion plan has been delayed by elevated secondhand vessel prices. PVT’s AGM-approved 2026 investment plan includes four vessels across the crude tanker, product tanker, chemical tanker, and dry-bulk segments. However, no vessels had been acquired as of H1 2026. Management explained that elevated tanker rates have made second-hand vessel costs higher. PVT indicated it will prioritize crude tanker acquisitions in H2 2026, potentially alongside an Ultramax-size bulk carrier. As of end-Q2 2026, PVT’s capex was only VND406bn (equivalent to 22% of our full-year forecast), mainly for two LPG vessels acquired by its subsidiaries. Having said that, PVT has a track record of significant capex disbursement in H2, and therefore we see insignificant changes to our 2026F capex projection, pending a fuller review.
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has had a positive net impact on 2026 operations, although 2027 remains more uncertain. PVT stated that the net impact of the Hormuz disruption on its 2026 operations has been positive and that business conditions should remain strong in H2 2026. However, management views 2027 as a more uncertain year. If shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and transport demand returns to pre-disruption patterns, the operating environment could become more challenging for tanker operators, including PVT. Management cited international research suggesting that tanker rates could decline by approximately 30% from current levels under a base-case scenario. We view such a decline as a natural normalization. During 7M 2026, time-charter rates increased 74% YoY for Aframax crude oil tankers, 38% YoY for medium-range product tankers, and 32% YoY for Handy chemical tankers, reflecting a strong rally. As a re, even a 30% decline would represent normalization from a high base. We see insignificant changes to our 2027 forecast, pending a fuller review.
Middle East exposure remains highly manageable. PVT currently has only one vessel positioned inside the Strait of Hormuz, compared with seven vessels in late February when the disruption began and three vessels in late April 2026. The exposure is therefore limited, with most of the fleet operating outside the region and benefiting from elevated freight rates. Management also noted that all affected vessels are either under time-charter contracts or operating within pools, allowing them to continue generating earnings during the disruption.
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