- We lower our target price (TP) for PVT by 10% to VND25,200/share but maintain our BUY rating following a 20% share price decline over the past five months. The lower TP reflects (1) a 1-ppt increase in our risk-free rate assumption to 7.0% and (2) a 2.0% cut to our aggregate 2026–30F reported NPAT-MI forecast (+8%/-3%/-2%/-5%/-6% for 2026/27/28/29/30F), outweighing (3) the positive impact from rolling our valuation horizon to mid-2027.
- Our lower aggregate NPAT-MI reflects a 9% cut to our average 2026–30F oil product/chemical tanker rate assumption, which outweigh an 11% increase for PVT’s overseas crude tanker average. We raise PVT's 2026F crude oil and oil product/chemical tanker rate growth to +60%/+41% YoY (from +20%/+12%) on higher-than-expected rates YTD, but revise PVT’s 2027-28F crude tanker rate growth to -30%/-10% (from -10%/-10%) and product/chemical tanker rate growth to -41%/-14% (from -11%/-11%), as we expect Strait of Hormuz shipping to normalize in late 2026 and effective oil product fleet growth to outpace trade growth in 2027.
- We forecast 2026F core NPAT-MI to grow 58% YoY, driven by (1) a 22% increase in fleet deadweight tonnage (DWT) capacity in 2025 and (2) PVT’s overseas crude tanker rates rising 60% YoY and oil product/chemical tanker rates increasing 41% YoY.
- For 2027F, we forecast NPAT-MI to grow 15% YoY, driven by (1) 9% higher transportation gross profit, as higher transportation volumes at PVT, following a +2.0 mb/d rebound in global oil demand in 2027 vs -1.1 mb/d in 2026 (EIA/IEA/OPEC consensus), outweigh lower tanker rates, and (2) 33% higher interest income as PVT moves into a net cash position.
- We project 2026–2028F core EPS CAGR of 11%, supported by volume growth/improved utilization from doubled DWT capacity during 2022–2025, elevated tanker rates at 1.2–1.6x 2021 levels, and declining interest expenses (p. 13). PVT appointed a new CEO from 3/8 (p. 16).
- PVT is attractive at a 2026F P/E of 6.3x, ~30% lower than its five-year median and a P/B of 1.0x.
- Upside: Higher-than-expected crude tanker rates; potential VLCC investment.
- Downside risk: Higher-than-expected maintenance expenses.
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