- We raise our target price (TP) for PVT by 4% to VND22,100/share and upgrade our rating to BUY from OUTPERFORM. Our higher TP is mainly driven by our 2% higher aggregate 2025-2029F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of 0%/+3%/+3%/+2%/+1% for 2025/26/27/28/29F), and the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2026.
- The higher aggregate NPAT-MI primarily driven by the incremental contribution from a newly acquired oil product/chemical tanker in October 2025. We broadly maintain our 2025 forecast, as 9M 2025 reported/core NPAT-MI completes 75%/74% of our previous full-year forecasts.
- We forecast 2025 core NPAT-MI to grow 2% YoY, driven by (1) 30% YoY fleet DWT (deadweight tonnage) expansion in 2024 and (2) an 18% YoY increase in BSR’s crude oil transport volume (~20% of fleet DWT), outweighing declines in PVT’s respective tanker rates at 25%/30%/25% YoY for crude oil/oil product/chemical tankers.
- We forecast 2026 core NPAT-MI to grow 26% YoY, mainly driven by: (1) the full-year benefit from PVT Apollo being fully depreciated since Q2 2025; (2) full-year contributions from the four vessels acquired in 10M 2025, which increased fleet DWT capacity by 9%; and (3) higher net financial income from reduced net debt after 2023–2024 vessel acquisitions.
- We project a 2025-28F core EPS CAGR of 14%, fueled by decreasing interest expenses outweighing declining tanker rates (see page 13). Notably, PVT delivered a 13% recurring NPAT-MI CAGR over 2014–2024 despite industry volatility.
- PVT’s valuation looks attractive with a 2026F P/E of 6.9x, 22% lower than its 5-year average P/E and PEG of 0.5 based on a 2-year EPS CAGR of 14%.
- Upside catalyst: Higher-than-expected tanker rates.
- Downside risk: Higher-than-expected interest expenses.
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