- We attended PVS’s AGM on June 18 and Analyst Meeting on June 8 (please see our Analyst Meeting Note for more information).
- Preliminary H1 2026 NPAT before MI was VND627bn, achieving 32% of our 2026F forecast. We see insignificant changes to our 2026 earnings forecast, pending a fuller review, as: (1) management noted preliminary numbers are conservative; (2) a potential VND635bn guarantee provision reversal provides a strong buffer (vs our forecast of VND150bn); and (3) receipt of compensation for a cancelled wind contract (details are not disclosed)
- CEO stated that Golden Sea Lion oil project might reach FID in 2027, one year sooner than our expectation. CEO’s comments support our assumption for a USD500mn contract from this oil field.
- PVS expects to transfer its listing from the HNX to HOSE in Q4 2026 as per regulation or they will proactively find solutions to move to HSX.
- PVS shared that, as of now, its estimated 2027 backlog is equivalent to around 70% of its expected execution value for 2026, more than VND20tn. This implies secured backlog of around VND28.6tn for 2026 and VND20tn for 2027, equivalent to 96% and 60% of our 2026 and 2027 respective M&C revenue forecast. That said, management noted that PVS is continuing to actively bid for new projects to expand its workload. We believe PVS will secure additional backlog, supported by Vietnam’s oil & gas upcycle, opportunities in the Middle East market, and rising offshore wind power demand.
- Shareholders approved 2026 guidance, with revenue of VND33tn (+1% vs. 2025A; +47% vs. 2025 guidance; 79% of our 2026 forecast) and NPAT before MI of VND990bn (-21% vs. 2025A; +27% vs. 2025 guidance; 50% of our 2026 forecast). During 2022–2025, PVS consistently outperformed its guidance, with actual revenue and profit exceeding guidance by an average of 52% and 92%, respectively.
- Shareholders approved PVS’s plan to distribute a stock dividend for 2025 at a ratio of 100:20, equivalent to 20 new shares for every 100 existing shares. Following the distribution, PVS’s share capital will increase to VND6,137bn (+20% vs. the current level of VND5,114bn). For 2026, PVS proposes a dividend payout of 7% in cash or stock compared with our assumption of no cash dividend.
- Management has provided more aggressive top-line guidance, with 2026–2030 revenue of VND210tn–220tn (~39% higher than the previous guidance of VND150tn–160tn released in October 2025).
- Our view: Near-term opportunities with oil & gas projects in the Middle East and Golden Sea Lion might provide upside to our 2027 earnings forecast. Meanwhile, a substantial workload from Blue Whale, PVN’s offshore wind project, offshore wind power export to Singapore, and nuclear power are upside catalysts for our 2028-2030 earnings forecast.
Shareholders approved PVS’s proposal on participating in large-value projects and service packages during 2026–2030. This is significant because it authorizes BOD and BOM to proactively bid, negotiate, and sign contracts for target projects valued at or above 35% of total assets, including related-party transactions with PetroVietnam and its affiliates. In our view, this approval could enhance PVS’s flexibility and execution speed in capturing large-scale project opportunities.
Management remains confident in renewing several FSO/FPSO contracts that are scheduled to expire around 2027. The company believes its strong negotiating position stems from the strategic nature of these assets, which cannot be easily replaced at producing fields. As a result, management expects future dayrates to remain broadly in line with current levels.
The Golden Sea Lion project is progressing faster than our expectation and could provide a sizable contract opportunity for PVS. PVS shared that the field development model has not yet been finalized, with two options currently under consideration: (1) using a central processing platform (CPP) or (2) an FPSO. PVS expects the investor to finalize the field development plan in early 2027, paving the way for FID, followed by project execution during 2027–2028 and first oil in 2029. This timeline is one year ahead of our expectation, as we currently assume FID in 2028 and first oil in 2030. Management indicated that, regardless of whether the CPP or FPSO option is selected, the potential service package is expected to be sizable, estimated at several hundred million USD. The CEO’s comments support our assumption of a USD500mn contract from this oil field.
Potential HOSE transfer. Management noted that it is monitoring the roadmap for restructuring Vietnam’s equity market, under which listed companies on HNX are expected to migrate to HOSE. Previously, this roadmap was regulated under Circular 57/2021/TT-BTC and was later amended by Circular 139/2025/TT-BTC dated December 30, 2025, with the deadline adjusted and extended to no later than December 31, 2026 (Q4 2026) under subsequent amended regulations. Under the base-case scenario, if the market reorganization proceeds as planned, PVS will not need to carry out a separate listing transfer from HNX to HOSE. However, if the roadmap is delayed further, PVS will proactively study a plan to transfer its listing to HOSE. In management’s view, a HOSE listing would enhance share liquidity, broaden access to institutional investors, and strengthen PVS’s capital-raising capability to support its long-term investment pipeline.
PVS indicated that negotiations for the subsea cable manufacturing joint venture have entered the final stage, with the main outstanding issue relating to project scale, as the foreign partner favors a larger-scale investment, while PTSC prefers a more measured approach. Management expects a final decision for the project’s scale by Q3 2026, with construction potentially beginning in 2027 and commercial operations targeted for 2029.
PVS shared that for the Singapore–Malaysia offshore wind export project, wind, current, and hydrological surveys are expected to be completed in June 2026, with preliminary technical and commercial proposals scheduled for submission to Singapore's Energy Market Authority (EMA) in September 2026. Management now expects FID for the offshore wind export project in 2029, later than previous guidance, given the need for strong Government support and cross-border coordination and COD in 2034.
PVS released preliminary H1 2026 results, with revenue of VND15.8tn (+18% YoY; 44% of our 2026F forecast), while NPAT before MI was VND627bn (+1% YoY; 32% of our 2026F forecast). We see insignificant changes to our 2026 forecast, pending a fuller review, for two reasons: (1) PVS tends to be conservative in its preliminary estimates; historically, during 2018–2024, actual profits exceeded preliminary figures by 24% on average; and (2) a potential VND635bn guarantee provision reversal provides a strong buffer vs. our forecast of VND150bn. At the recent analyst meeting, PVS said it expects to sign the final acceptance minutes for the Sao Vang Dai Nguyet project this year. If the signing process proceeds without the project owner requiring additional repair work by the project owner, PVS could recover/reverse around VND600bn in provisions (as of end-Q1 2026, PVS’s provision balance for this project stood at VND684bn). In addition, PVS could also reverse provisions related to other projects, including the Long Son Petrochemicals complex (provision balance of VND14bn as of end-Q1 2026) and the Thi Vai LPG storage project (VND21bn). The total amount could reach VND635bn, equivalent to 26% of our 2026F PBT forecast.
Shareholders approved PVS’s 2026–2030 strategy, which points to a broader repositioning into a regional energy contractor. PVS’s AGM documents indicate a strategic shift from a traditional oil & gas technical service provider toward a regional energy industrial contractor, with the following core growth pillars:
- Upstream oil & gas (domestic and overseas): PVS targets major domestic upstream projects, including (1) White Lion Phase 2, (2) Blue Whale, (3) Murphy Oil’s Vietnam projects such as Golden Sea Lion and Pink Camel. Furthermore, PVS aims to pursue field development and energy infrastructure projects, particularly in the Middle East, where post US-Iran conflict reconstruction could create sizeable EPC opportunities.
- Offshore renewable energy: Target projects include offshore wind power export project to Singapore and Malaysia, PVN’s offshore wind project, and broader supply-chain investments. The company also targets deeper participation in the offshore wind supply chain, including production of subsea cables, wind turbine towers, wind turbines, and spare parts via joint ventures.
- Domestic energy infrastructure: (1) the national petroleum storage project in Thanh Hoa, (2) LNG terminals and gas-fired power projects under PDP8, such as LNG Son My, LNG Thi Vai Phase 2 terminal, and gas-fired power projects in Can Tho and Da Nang (3) Dung Quat refinery’s upgrade, (4) nuclear power (PVS aims to prepare capabilities to participate in the Ninh Thuan 1 and 2 nuclear power projects) and (5) Renewable energy industrial & services center in Rach Dua-HCMC, (6) PVN’s industrial and ecological energy center
Shareholders approved a 2025 bonus and welfare fund of VND352bn, equivalent to 19.3% of 2025 reported NPAT-MI, broadly in line with our projected level of 20%. For 2026, PVS proposes a bonus and welfare fund of VND131bn, based on NPAT before MI of VND990bn.
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