- We lower our target price (TP) for PTB by 12% to VND71,000/share but upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY. PTB’s share price has dropped 21% since our last Update in July 2024.
- Our lower TP is due to 29%/25%/25% downward revisions in our 2025F/26F/27F NPAT-MI projections, which are partially offset by rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2025 from mid-2025 and lowering the valuation discount in our SoTP valuation to 10% from 20%.
- Our lower NPAT-MI reflects lower-than-expected revenue across segments (excluding wood) in 2024. Additionally, we expect 1) PTB to continue securing more low-margin stone orders from 2025F onward amid intense competition in the high-margin segment, and 2) a slower handover pace in real estate projects through 2025F-28F (vs 2025F-27F previously). However, our new NPAT-MI forecast still translates to solid growth of 27%/13%/13% in 2026F/27F/28F.
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