* We raise our target price (TP) for PNJ by 18% to VND88,900/share and reiterate our BUY rating.
* We remain constructive on PNJ’s long-term outlook, projecting a 2025-30F retail sales CAGR of 10% and NPAT-MI CAGR of 13%. This is underpinned by (1) rising demand for fashion jewelry, driven by the ongoing shift from unbranded to branded jewelry and improving disposable income, (2) market share gain potential supported by industry formalization, and (3) PNJ’s strong competitive positioning.
* Our higher TP is driven by (1) a 15% increase in our 2026–31F NPAT-MI forecast due to stronger retail sales and retail GPM assumptions, reflecting PNJ’s strong pricing power and ability to capture demand, and (2) the positive impacts from rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2027.
* For 2026F, we forecast NPAT-MI growth of 26% YoY, mainly driven by retail sales growth of 14% YoY (including SSSG of 13% and 15 net new stores).
* PNJ is currently trading at 2026/27F P/Es of 10.6x/10.0x, respectively, which we view as attractive vs its 5-year average TTM P/E of 15.2x.
* Upside potential/Downside risks: Stronger/weaker demand; faster/slower store expansion.
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