- We raise our target price (TP) for PLX by 5.1% to VND43,200/share and maintain a BUY rating. Our higher TP reflects a 5% higher aggregate 2026–29F NPAT-MI forecast (+8%/3%/6%/5% for 2026/27/28/29F), the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon to mid-2027, and cash proceeds from the treasury share sale. These outweigh a 1-ppt increase in our risk-free rate assumption, higher outstanding shares post-treasury share sale, and a lower cash balance.
- Our higher aggregate NPAT-MI forecast reflects (1) a 2.9% rise in average gross profit per liter (GPPL), supported by the positive impact of the application of E10 gasoline from June 2026 and a slightly more favorable price-adjustment cycle, and (2) 5% higher aggregate sales volume. These factors outweigh lower financial income and higher financial expenses given our higher oil price forecast (see our Energy Sector Update, dated September 22, 2026).
- We forecast 2026 core NPAT to grow 29% YoY due to massive volume growth of 15% YoY, increased market share, and the Government’s timely price adjustments (page 12).
- We forecast 2027 core NPAT-MI to rise 48% YoY, driven by a 7% increase in GPPL as the new decree becomes effective and full-year benefits of E10 gasoline, despite expected flat volume.
- We project a 27% CAGR in reported EPS for 2026-28F, driven by a (1) 1.0% volume CAGR (from 2026’s high base), and (2) EBIT margin recovery to 1.6% in 2028 (vs the 2015-19 average of 3.2%) following the new pricing mechanism and expected moderate oil price volatility.
- PLX is attractive at a 2027 P/E of 10.4x, 48% lower vs its median five-year P/E (19.9x).
- Catalysts: Approval of new petroleum decree confirming our forecast, State divestment, capital increase via stock dividend.
- Downside risks: Volatile oil prices; competition from Vin Oil&Gas Global (page 24).
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