- We reiterate our BUY rating for NVL with an unchanged target price (TP) of VND18,600 per share.
- Our TP is driven by rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2027 from end-2026, partly offset by our assumed 0.2 ppts higher WACC and higher projected construction costs.
- We forecast 2026F NPAT-MI of VND1.5tn (USD56mn; -15% YoY), driven by the recognition of an undisclosed land plot transfer in Q1 2026 and a pickup in property handovers over the remainder of the year. Our projected property handovers in the remainder of 2026F comprises presold units at Aqua City, Novaworld Phan Thiet, Novaworld Ho Tram, and the start of Victoria Village (high-rise) handovers.
- We increase our 2026F NPAT-MI forecast by 270%, mainly due to our deferral of Aqua City handovers previously expected in Q4 2025F into 2026F, as well as the incorporation of a Q1 2026 land plot transfer.
- We maintain our 2026F presales forecast of VND11.4tn (USD433mn), vs muted activities during 2023-2025, mainly driven by the expected presales relaunch at Aqua City toward end-2026F.
- At end-Q1 2026, NVL’s total unbilled bookings stood at VND227tn (USD8.6bn), of which a significant portion remains to be collected from customers. Aqua City accounted for 51% of the backlog, followed by NovaWorld Phan Thiet (24%), NovaWorld Ho Tram (11%), and HCMC projects (14%). We expect the backlog to convert into revenue and cash collections progressively through 2029F, supported by ongoing construction progress and handovers.
- Key risks to our view: (1) Longer-than-expected new presales, (2) potential dilution risk from equity issue plans, (3) limited transparency in cash collection due to internal structure, and (4) disclosure risk regarding project ownership.
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