Q2 2025: Sales volume was 762 mn kWh (-26% YoY); revenue was VND2.1tn (-5% YoY); reported NPAT was VND326bn (2.7x YoY).
- Sales volume declined YoY mainly due to 25% YoY national hydropower output growth while gas-fired production volume fell 20% YoY. However, NT2 received strong Qc volume due to its standby mobilization status (+21% YoY).
- The divergence between NPAT and revenue was driven by 28% YoY ASP growth (due to 8.4x YoY non-mobilzied Qc volume) amid sector CGM decline of 17% YoY and YoY flat gas prices.
H1 2025: Sales volume was 1.4bn (+15% YoY), revenue was VND3.5tn (+43% YoY, 49% of our 2025F forecast), and reported NPAT was VND363bn (vs VND36bn loss in H1 2024, completing 156% of our 2025F forecast).
- We attribute the strong reported NPAT turnaround to (1) 15% YoY sales volume growth and (2) 25% YoY ASP growth (due to YoY doubled Qc volume and 10x YoY non-mobilized Qc).
- NT2 completed H1 with a substantially high Qc ratio of 117%. According to POW and NT2, H2 Qc volume is 1.9 bn kWh, marking full-year 2025F of 3.5bn kWh (+58% YoY), implying Qc of 108% vs our 2025F sales volume projection.
Overall, we see substantial upside potential to our 2025F reported NPAT (VND232bn, 2.8x YoY) due a substantially stronger-than-expected Qc volume/ratio, while sales volume was broadly in line with our forecast, pending a fuller review. We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for NT2 with a target price of VND20,600/share.
NT2’s H1 2025 results
VND bn | Q2 2024 | Q2 2025 | YoY (%) | H1 2024 | H1 2025 | YoY (%) | % of 2025F |
Sales volume (mn kWh)* | 1,026 | 762 | -26% | 1,178 | 1,350 | 15% | 42% |
Qc (mn kWh)* | 792 | 955 | 21% | 793 | 1,583 | 100% | 61% |
Non-mobilized Qc (mn kWh)* | 23 | 193 | 756% | 23 | 250 | 1,008% | N.M. |
ASP (VND/kWh) | 2,130 | 2,731 | 28% | 2,078 | 2,599 | 25% | 117% |
Gas price (USD/MMBTU)* | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0% | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0% | 99% |
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Revenue | 2,186 | 2,081 | -5% | 2,448 | 3,508 | 43% | 49% |
COGS | -2,057 | -1,715 | -17% | -2,544 | -3,097 | 22% | 45% |
Gross profit | 129 | 367 | 183% | -96 | 411 | N.M. | 149% |
SG&A | -18 | -21 | 16% | -33 | -40 | 21% | 49% |
Operating profit | 111 | 345 | 211% | -129 | 371 | N.M. | 191% |
Financial income | 19 | 38 | 98% | 39 | 69 | 80% | 60% |
Financial expense | -9 | -18 | 112% | -17 | -32 | 93% | 62% |
Other income | 1 | 0 | N.M. | 71 | 0 | N.M. | N.M. |
Profit before tax | 122 | 365 | 198% | -36 | 408 | N.M. | 158% |
NPAT, reported | 122 | 326 | 167% | -36 | 363 | N.M. | 156% |
NPAT, core | 122 | 326 | 168% | -93 | 363 | N.M. | 156% |
Source: NT2, Vietcap (*Vietcap estimates)
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