- We reiterate our BUY rating for NLG with a target price (TP) of VND45,800/share.
- Our TP is unchanged as a higher Sol Garden valuation and the positive impact from rolling our TP forward to mid-2027 are offset by higher assumed capex for Waterpoint Phase 2 and a lower end-Q1 2026 net cash balance.
- We forecast 2026F NPAT-MI of VND710bn (USD27mn; +1% YoY), while projecting 2026F core NPAT-MI (excluding one-off gains from the 2025 Izumi City stake sale and the Q1 2026 education land plot transfer) to surge 126% YoY, driven by ongoing handovers at Southgate and Can Tho, alongside the commencement of handovers for new phases at Izumi City, Mizuki Park, and Elyse Island in Q4 2026F.
- We slightly increase our NPAT-MI forecasts for 2026F and 2028F by 2%/3% while keeping 2027F NPAT-MI unchanged, mainly due to our rescheduled handover timing of Elyse Island and Sol Garden to start in 2026F and 2028F, respectively.
- We forecast 2026F presales to grow 21% YoY to VND14.4tn (USD546mn), with momentum expected to strengthen toward end-2026F following resilient 4M 2026 presales (VND3.5tn/USD133mn; +36% YoY). We revise up our 2026/27/28F presales forecasts by 12%/5%/6% respectively, as the April 2026 launch of Sol Garden came earlier than our previous expectation.
- NLG is currently trading at 1.0x/0.9x its 2026/27F P/B, below its 5Y average of 1.6x, and so we believe the stock is materially undervalued vs resilient fundamentals.
- Downside risks to our positive view: Slower-than-expected presales progress at key projects; prolonged challenging macro backdrop could continue to pressure liquidity / interest rates.
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