2026 guidance:
- Revenue: VND185.0tn (+18% YoY), NPAT: VND9.2tn (+30% YoY).
- DMX is expected to contribute ~65% of revenue and ~80% of NPAT; BHX ~30% revenue and ~20% NPAT.
- Group capex for FY26: ~VND2.5tn (includes BHX store buildouts, store refurbishments, warehouse/fleet, IT infrastructure); similar or higher in subsequent years as BHX expansion continues.
- Financial income consistently exceeds financial expenses → net financial income positive (Group has low debt, earns investment returns); higher interest rates have negligible impact on core business.
- Dividend: Cash dividend confirmed for FY26 (amount to be determined at March’s board meeting and AGM); management acknowledged the shareholders’ request for a stock dividend and will consider.
Key themes for 2026:
- DMX: Shift from retail to "lifetime product value provider"; IPO and independent listing planned in FY26.
- BHX: Aggressive expansion (1,000 new stores) to lay groundwork for IPO in 2028; must cover accumulated losses before listing.
- An Khang: Targeting breakeven or slight profit in FY26 after VND11–12bn loss in FY25.
- Avakids: Profitable (VND40+bn NPAT in 2025), will continue contributing in FY26.
- Era Blue (Indonesia JV): Turned profitable in FY25; expected to remain profitable in FY26 with continued expansion to 300 stores.
MWG as holding company; subsidiary IPOs to unlock value:
- MWG centralizes shared services: IT, finance/accounting, legal, IR, customer experience provided to all subsidiaries (economies of scale, cost efficiency).
- Separate teams, separate operations → independent financial reporting and accountability → clarity of performance and incentives for each chain.
- Market valuation: Independent listings allow investors to value each business separately (better price discovery for high-growth BHX vs growth & dividends for DMX).
- Capital access: Each subsidiary can raise capital independently for growth needs.
DMX – ICT demand wave; quality-driven growth; IPO in 2026; Era Blue scales rapidly:
- 2026 revenue growth target: +15% YoY; NPAT growth: +20% YoY.
- Era Blue (Indonesia): Target >300 stores by end-2026 (+70% YoY), revenue +30%. remain profitable. Consolidate position as a leading retailer in the Indonesian market.
- Momentum: Q4 2025 revenue: VND29.3tn (+28% YoY), strong year-end momentum.
- AI integration in smartphones → upgrade cycle for tech-savvy consumers
- Laptops: (1) AI-enabled models; (2) transition to Windows 11 (Microsoft ending Win10 support) → replacement demand; (3) Government mandate for small businesses to digitize (e-invoicing, tax reporting) → new SME laptop demand.
- Accessories: Cameras, premium audio, smartwatches still have low market share at DMX, presenting a growth opportunity.
- RAM shortage concern (recent price spikes for laptops/servers): Short-term impact minimal (DMX already secured inventory at favorable pre-spike prices via long-term planning); flexible installment solutions to mitigate consumer impact.
- Tho Dien May Xanh aims to become brands’ exclusive after-sales service partner, competing with the 200–300 fragmented service providers currently serving each brand. The company also plans to expand into B2C services (e.g., periodic maintenance for existing appliance owners), which represents a large untapped market in Vietnam.
BHX – Expansion mode; 1,000 new stores in FY26; IPO-ready by 2028:
- 2026 target revenue growth: +15–20% YoY; NPAT: Minimum VND1.2tn vs VND700bn in 2025.
- Store openings: ~1,000 new stores; 30–40% in new northern provinces, 60–70% in existing southern/central markets.
- Momentum: Q4 2025 revenue +15% YoY, driven by year-end sales push.
- SSSG: 5-10% vs negligible 2025 SSSG.
- Quality of new stores significantly improved: Total operating profit (after all direct operating + logistics costs) was positive for the 789 stores opened in 2025; ~70% achieved positive EBIT.
- E-commerce acceleration: Transition from DC-based fulfillment (high cost, long delivery, quality issues) to store-based fulfillment → 80–90% of online orders now delivered within 30 minutes, lower cost, better quality → online channel turned profitable.
- AI & tech (continued from previous years): Use AI for foot traffic analysis, demand forecasting by season/region/promotion, improve fresh inventory management (reduce spoilage, avoid stockouts); large dataset enables accurate prediction across diverse local preferences and seasonal patterns.
Grocery consumer & market:
- Overall retail consumption growth remains modest; services (travel, dining, transport) growing faster than goods. Early FY26 shows slight improvement vs FY25.
- Modern trade (supermarkets) expected to gain share from traditional channels as the Government tightens enforcement on small retailers (e-invoicing, tax compliance) → opportunity for BHX.
- Northern region continues gradual rollout (Ninh Binh was launched in November 2025 as the first northern foothold after ~10 years in the south/central regions); testing additional northern provinces.
- FMCG competition is intense in the north (higher density of local competitors vs in the south); fresh category shows strong customer reception at BHX.
- Northern consumers are more loyal to existing stores, but BHX brand recognition nationwide + dense network rollout expected to attract trial and switching.
- Central region experience: BHX achieved lower revenue per store but also a lower breakeven point (right-sized investments for smaller markets) → confident in model replicability; need more time/data for northern breakeven assessment.
Grocery supply chain:
- Cut SKUs from 3000 to 2000 in 2025 and improved fresh product quality, BHX SSSG now ready to improve.
- Storm/flood impact (temporary supply shortage for 1–2 months) fully recovered.
- Recent import regulation changes initially caused delays; Government quickly adjusted → operations normalized.
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