We attended MBB’s H1 2026 analyst meeting, where strong results reinforced the bank’s ability to deliver its full-year targets, supported by robust credit growth, a top-tier CASA ratio, resilient NIM, and continued CIR improvement. Despite a more challenging operating backdrop, management’s confidence in maintaining NIM and containing asset-quality pressures amid strong loan growth strengthened our view that MBB’s outlook remains underpinned by a solid funding franchise, disciplined execution, and superior operating efficiency, as reflected in its robust H1 2026 ROE of 21.6%.
Below are the highlights:
1. Macro view by the bank
- Management expects GDP growth of above 9% in H2 and above 8.5% for the full year.
- Interest rates (deposit rates per our understanding) are expected to remain broadly stable in H2 2026, while banking-system liquidity will depend partly on the pace of public investment disbursement.
2. Credit growth
- Credit grew 13.0% in H1 2026, lifting the loan market share from 6.0% to 6.3% with a target of 0.3-0.5 ppt expansion in H2 2026. MBB expects full-year credit growth of 30%-35%.
- H1 2026: Corporate loans rose 18.4% (57% of the book) vs retail growth of 7.0%.
- The newly established FDI banking division is becoming an important growth driver. MBB plans to open representative offices in Singapore, China, Taiwan, and South Korea to capture FDI flows into Vietnam. The Singapore office has already been licensed and is being staffed, while the other three remain subject to regulatory approval.
- Real estate exposure remains controlled at 12–13% of total loans versus the internal ceiling of 15%.
- MBB remains selective, focusing on residential projects in major economic centers and industrial zones, while avoiding resort and remote-location projects.
- The bank also sees opportunities in national infrastructure financing, subject to project-level appraisal. MBB is participating in financing APEC projects by Sun Group in Phu Quoc.
- The increase in the permitted short-term funding ratio for medium- and long-term loans from 30% to 40% was viewed positively, particularly for retail lending, where loan tenors are typically longer at MBB.
3. Deposits & funding
- H1 2026 total funding growth was 8.0%. Retail deposits rose 8.1% and corporate deposits grew 9.1%.
- CASA ratio fell to 34.6% (vs 37.0% in 2025), remaining in the top-2, while the bank targets the top position. Offshore funding and VND10-15tn of Tier 2 domestic bonds issuance in H2 support MBB to contain funding cost.
4. NIM & cost of funds
- H1 2026 NIM narrowed to 3.9% from 4.0% in 2025, still ~60 bps above the 3.3% large-bank average, with a quarterly recovery to 4.1% in Q2 (+30 bps QoQ). The pressure is entirely liability-side.
- Management targets a stable 4.0-4.1% NIM in H2 through earning-asset restructuring, CASA improvement, and cheaper offshore funding.
5. Operating efficiency and group synergies:
- CIR improved to 26.3% from 31.1% in 2025 (peers: 28.3%), driven by productivity rather than cost cuts. This is what offset NIM compression and held ROE at 21.6% and ROA at 1.9%.
- H1 2026 non-interest income fell YoY mainly due to a strong decline in FX and securities trading income. Card fees rose 83% YoY, while payments, guarantees, and insurance remained key growth drivers. Insurance revenue increased 16% YoY.
- Subsidiaries contributed PBT of VND1,748bn (+13% YoY), ~9% of group profit: MBS +22%, MB Ageas Life +151%, and Mcredit +57%. The digital base reached 37.8mn customers, targeting 40mn by end-2026. MBB will focus on customer monetization, cross-selling, and digital channels.
6. Asset quality & risk management
- 2026 guidance: Standalone NPL ratio of ~1.2-1.3% and consolidated level to be below 1.5%. LLR to be above 100%.
- H1 credit cost was 1.3% (-20 bps YoY with full provisioning maintained under Decree 86).
7. Other matters
- Standalone CAR fell to 10.28% vs 11.14% at end-2025, with Tier 1 at 9.02%. Management attributes the decline to rapid RWA growth outpacing a capital plan that has not yet landed and has a roadmap to Circular 14 (Basel III) with both Tier 1 and Tier 2 issuance.
- MBB is progressing the private placement of 200mn shares (~2% stake) including 27mn shares to Viettel and 173mn additional shares to professional investors with ecosystem synergy and strong financial capacity.
- Mcredit has an IPO plan in the medium term.
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