H1 2025 GDP growth reached the highest level since 2011: Vietnam’s Q2 2025 GDP growth reached 7.96% YoY (Q2 2024: +7.25% YoY). This brought H1 2025 GDP growth to 7.52% YoY (H1 2024: +6.64% YoY) – the highest H1 figure since 2011 and slightly below the Government’s target of 7.6% YoY.
- Solid production growth led by double digit growth of the manufacturing sub-sector: In H1 2025, overall IIP rose 9.2% YoY, led by continued double-digit growth (+11.1% YoY) of the manufacturing sub-sector. The latest PMI report showed improving business confidence while NSO’s business trend survey indicated over 80% of FDI, non-State, and State firms expect stable or better conditions in Q3. However, new export orders dropping may pose short-term risks to exports and production.
- Strong international arrivals continued to support growth in retail sales. Total retail sales growth in H1 2025 rose 9.3% YoY. Retail sales could gain support from the summer season. Meanwhile, H2 2025 domestic consumption may benefit from: (1) continued strong international arrivals; (2) full public tuition exemption nationwide; and (3) the potential of over VND100tn disbursement for staff streamlining.
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