- We reiterate our BUY rating on KDH but lower our target price (TP) by 3% to VND42,600/share.
- Our lower TP is mainly due to a higher net debt balance, lower valuation for other projects following the end-Q1 2026 book value update, and dilution from the 2026 AGM-approved ESOP. These factors are partly offset by a higher valuation for the Cat Lai project (8.2 ha; Cat Lai Ward, HCMC) and rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2027 from end-2026.
- We forecast 2026F NPAT-MI to grow 53% YoY to VND1.6tn (USD61mn), driven largely by continued sales and handovers of Gladia’s low-rise units.
- For 2027F, we forecast NPAT-MI to grow a further 39% vs 2026F, driven by the completion of Gladia low-rise sales and handovers, the commencement of Gladia high-rise handovers following presales in 2026F, and initial contributions from The Solina, Le Minh Xuan Expansion (LMX Exp) IP, and Binh Trung Dong.
- We trim our 2026/27F NPAT-MI forecasts by 4%/3%, mainly due to lower projected recognition from Gladia low-rise units in 2026F and Binh Trung Dong in 2027F vs our previous projections, which are partly offset by the inclusion of the bargain purchase gain from the Cat Lai (An Lap) project recorded in Q1 2026.
- We expect residential presales to average VND7.5tn (USD286mn) annually in 2026–2027F, more than double the prior three-year average, supported by a wave of new project launches that underscores KDH's strong ability to monetize its land bank.
- KDH is trading at 2026/27F P/Bs of 1.3x/1.2x, well below its 5-year average of 2.2x. We believe the valuation remains undemanding, supported by a visible earnings upcycle (53%/39% NPAT-MI growth in 2026F/27F) and strong long-term monetization potential from its >500 ha land bank in core HCMC, which underpins multi-year growth visibility.
- Downside risks to our positive view: Slower-than-expected launches of new projects; prolonged challenging macro backdrop could continue to pressure liquidity / interest rates.
Powered by Froala Editor
