We attended HVN’s 2025 AGM in Hanoi, with key takeaway as follows:
1. Q2 2025 preliminary results:
*Q2 2025 preliminary PBT reached a Q2 record high, with parent company earnings of VND1.0tn (vs VND232bn of losses in Q2 2024) and consolidated PBT of VND1.6tn (+49% YoY).
2. 2025 guidance:
*HVN targets 2025 consolidated revenue of VND117tn (+4% YoY) and PBT of VND5.6tn, equivalent to 66% of 2024’s reported PBT and +50% YoY compared to adjusted PBT excluding the one-off gain from PA’s debt clearance. We believe HVN has set a conservative guidance, following its track record, especially as preliminary H1 2025 consolidated PBT has already fulfilled 94% of the full-year target.
*For the parent company, revenue is guided at VND93tn (+10% YoY) with PBT of VND4.2tn (+50% YoY).
3. Strategy
*Expanding international network and strengthening partnerships. HVN’s 2025 route openings and resumptions plan is as follows:
- From April 2025: HCMC-Beijing (4-5 flights/week); resume HCMC – Hong Kong (7 flights/week), Da Nang – Bangkok (4 flights/week) and Hanoi – Kuala Lumpur (3 flights/week).
- From May 2025: resume Hanoi – Moscow (2 flights/week).
- From June 2025: Nha Trang – Busan (7 flights/week), HCMC – Bali (4-7 flights/week).
- From July 2025: Hanoi – Milan (3 flights/week); resume Da Nang – Osaka (4 flights/week).
- From November 2025: resume Hanoi – Taipei (7 flights/week);
- From December 2025: Phu Quoc – Taipei and Phu Quoc – Seoul (7 flights/week each).
*Sustaining domestic market leadership: Management views the entry of new domestic airlines recently as part of a healthy, competitive market. The company aims to maintain >50% market share via enhancing service quality, operational efficiency, and brand equity as the national flag carrier.
*Fleet expansion update
- 50 narrow-body aircraft procurement plan (see details): contracts have been signed with suppliers, per management. The expected delivery schedule is 14/18/18 aircraft in 2030/2031/2032, respectively.
- A wide-body fleet plan is in progress, estimating 50 new aircraft by 2035 (30 for expansion, 20 for replacements for aging A350 and B787s). In the short term, HVN will use dry/wet leases and engine rentals to bridge supply shortages.
*Ancillary revenue: Cargo remains a key pillar of HVN’s ancillary revenue. The company has submitted a proposal to establish a dedicated cargo fleet, starting with 2–4 aircraft during 2026–2030 and expanding to 8–10 aircraft by 2035. HVN also plans to develop logistics hubs at major domestic airports (e.g., Noi Bai, LTA). In addition, HVN will explore complementary areas such as ground services, aircraft maintenance, and pilot and cabin crew training to enhance its core aviation business.
*Capital raising (see details):
- Phase 1 – issuance size of VND9tn: HVN has submitted the application to the State Securities Commission, expecting regulatory approval in late Q2 2025 and the issuance to complete in Q3 2025.
- Phase 2 - maximum issuance size of VND13tn: developing and implementation to begin in 2026.
*Divestment: key capital restructuring plans across subsidiaries (i.e. APLACO, PA, TCS, and Skypec, among others) have been approved by the competent authorities in accordance with regulations. Notably, HVN plans to complete 100% divestment from TCS in 2025. The Pacific Airlines divestment remains ongoing, with continued support measures in place to sustain its operations during the divestment process.
4. Other comments from management
- Jet fuel price volatility and FX fluctuations remain key risks. For fuel, the company is monitoring the fuel market and is studying legally compliant hedging solutions to mitigate fuel risks over the medium to long term. In 6M 2025, HVN’s average fuel price has been USD84.3/bbl, lower compared to the company's guidance of USD85/bbl. For FX, HVN aims to increase FX-denominated revenue, and reduce reliance on foreign currency loans through debt restructuring to VND.
- ESG: Under RefuelEU regulations, flights to/from EU airports must use at least 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) starting in 2025, gradually increasing to 70% by 2050. Vietnam Airlines has successfully tested SAF and plans to implement its use soon. According to management, SAF is currently priced at 3x the cost of jet fuel due to limited supply, meeting only ~1% of global demand. As a result, airlines globally are applying higher fuel surcharges and passing costs on to customers.
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