We attended HVN's 2026 annual general meeting (AGM) in Hanoi on June 28, 2026.
Our view: Guidance for 2026 was set sharply lower YoY, with consolidated PBT of only VND510bn (-94% YoY; vs our 2026 forecast of VND9.7tn). Overall, we expect 2026 earnings to be heavily distorted by the fuel price shock, posting downside risk to our forecast. Nevertheless, we believe full-year earnings should be higher than guided, supported by actual jet fuel prices declining at a faster rate than the company project. Additionally, a strengthened balance sheet following Phase 1 recapitalization, and continued fleet expansion, should provide a firmer foundation for HVN’s earnings recovery beyond 2026.
Further takeaways are as follows:
1. 2026 Guidance
For the guidance, management assumes a Jet A1 fuel price of USD128.5/bbl in 2026 (+48% YoY) which would add around VND11.9tn of fuel costs vs 2025 from price impact alone. We note that, as of June 26, YTD Platts' Singapore jet fuel price averaged USD142/bbl, with a cooling down trajectory evident.
- Passenger volume: HVN guides for 27.7mn pax in 2026 (+8.1% YoY), including 9.8mn international pax (+13.4% YoY) and 17.9mn domestic pax (+5.5% YoY).
- HVN guides for consolidated revenue of VND139tn (+12% YoY; 121% of our 2026 forecast) and PBT of VND510bn (-94% YoY; vs our 2026 forecast of VND9.7tn), underscoring management's conservative earnings outlook amid elevated fuel price assumptions.
- For the parent company, revenue is guided at VND115tn (+17% YoY) with PBT of VND101bn (-98% YoY).
2. Q2 preliminary results and H2 2026 outlook
- Management estimated that the parent company could record around VND2.0tn of net losses in Q2 2026, primarily due to the spike in jet fuel prices, which averaged USD182/bbl during the quarter and increased fuel expenses by an estimated VND7.0tn QoQ. We estimate consolidated net loss of roughly VND1.3-1.5tn in Q2 (vs NPAT-MI of VND2.8tn in Q2 2025 and VND4.4tn in Q1 2026).
- Looking ahead, Jet A1 prices have fallen to around USD112–115/bbl following the easing of Middle East tensions and remain below management's assumption used in their planning. This should support a sequential earnings recovery from Q3, although full-year profitability is likely to remain modest.
3. Network and fleet
- HVN reaffirmed its long-term fleet renewal strategy. Following the order for 50 Boeing 737-8 aircraft (deliveries scheduled for 2030–2032), the airline plans to bridge capacity by leasing 20 narrow-body aircraft during 2027–2028.
- For wide-body aircraft, management is evaluating the acquisition of 20–30 aircraft for delivery during 2031–2035, alongside 12 leased wide-body aircraft in 2028–2030.
- The company's first dedicated cargo aircraft is expected to be delivered in June 2026, with commercial operations beginning in Q3 2026.
- On fleet disposals, HVN will defer part of its previously approved aircraft sale plan to preserve operating capacity.
+ The 2021 AGM approved the sale of six ATR72 aircraft as part of the transition toward regional jets. However, given the lack of a concrete timeline for Con Dao Airport’s upgrade and changes in route demand, HVN will continue operating the ATR fleet and dispose of the ATR fleet only once Con Dao Airport's upgrade timeline becomes clearer.
+ For the A321 CEO fleet, HVN completed the sale of three aircraft in 2024. The disposal of the remaining six A321 CEO aircraft will be postponed, as aircraft lease/sale prices have increased and supply remains tight. This reflects management's preference to preserve operating capacity amid a tight global aircraft supply environment.
4. Divestment and restructuring
Management reiterated its strategy of optimizing non-core aviation operations: The planned sale of TCS has been deferred pending a review of airport infrastructure planning and asset utilization. The search for a strategic investor for Pacific Airlines remains ongoing but continues to face legal and market-related challenges. For SKYPEC, the Board has approved a plan to divest up to 49%, with a legal advisor already appointed. Execution remains subject to regulatory approval and market conditions.
5. Dividend
HVN will not pay a dividend for FY2025, as retained earnings will be used to strengthen the balance sheet and offset accumulated losses. Management expects dividend payments to resume only after accumulated losses are fully cleared, likely in 2030–2032.
6. Board leadership appointment
- Shareholders approved the election of Mr. Truong Van Phuoc as an independent Board member and Mr. Dinh Viet Tung as a Board member. Mr. Phuoc is currently a member of the Scientific Council under the National Assembly Standing Committee, while Mr. Tung is Deputy CEO of SCIC.
Shareholders also approved the election of Ms. Nguyen Thi Hong Loan, Deputy Head of SCIC’s General Planning Department, as a member of the Board of Supervisors.
Powered by Froala Editor
