* We attended GVR’s virtual annual general meeting (AGM) on June 17, 2026.
* Shareholders approved 2026G guidance for total income (including revenue, financial income, net income from affiliates and other income) of VND33.8tn (USD1.3bn; +4% YoY), PBT of VND6.9tn (USD264mn; -2% YoY), and NPAT of VND5.6tn (USD211mn; -7% YoY), equal to 100%, 81%, and 77% of our respective full-year forecasts. GVR’s NPAT results in 2022/23/24/25 were equivalent to 90%/79%/140%/121% of the respective guidance set at the beginning of each year.
* GVR announced preliminary 5M 2026 PBT of VND3.9tn (USD148mn; +30% YoY), completing 56% of GVR’s 2026G guidance and is equivalent to 46% of our full-year forecast. We anticipate potential upside to our 2026F forecasts for GVR, pending a fuller review.
* Shareholders approved a dividend of 4% on par value for FY2025 and a minimum dividend distribution of 4% on par value for FY2026. GVR paid all of its dividends in cash in previous years. We currently assume FY2025 and FY2026 respective cash dividends of VND600/share (1.7% yield) and VND800/share (2.3% yield).
Rubber ASP expected to trend upward over 2026–30: Management guides for average rubber prices to reach ~USD2,200/tonne in 2026 and ~USD3,000–3,300/tonne by 2030, implying a 2026–30G CAGR of 8–11%. The key driver is a structural supply-demand mismatch that GVR expects to widen from a deficit of ~500,000 tonnes in 2026 to ~1.5–2mn tonnes by 2030. While rubber ASPs may see some seasonal softness in H2 2026 vs H1 2026, GVR projects full-year 2026 rubber ASPs to increase by at least 5% YoY, with upside potential toward 10%.
Sizeable rubber land conversion pipeline: GVR is progressing with five IPs that have received investment approval and are in various stages of early development — Rach Bap Expansion (HCMC), Bac Dong Phu Phase 2, Minh Hung III Phase 2, and Nam Dong Phu Phase 2 (all in Dong Nai), and Hiep Thanh (Tay Ninh) — with select projects expected to commence initial infrastructure work by Q3 2026. Looking further ahead, the approved masterplan for the southeast region allocates ~33,000 ha of rubber land for IP development, representing ~50% of total planned IP area for the region, of which ~24,000 ha is targeted for development over 2026–30, which should provide a supportive backdrop for GVR's long-term land conversion prospects.
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