We raise our average Brent oil price base case by ~20% for 2022 & 2023 and 15% for 2024-2026F. The ongoing Russia – Ukraine conflict and resulting sanctions, concern regarding ~3 million barrels per day of Russian oil to be removed from the market, almost no change in OPEC’s production cut policy, and lower-than-expected US production support high oil prices. Even though demand is hurt by high prices, OPEC and the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) still expect demand to recover to pre-COVID levels. In Q1 2022, the average Brent price was USD97/bbl. As such, we raise our 2022 and 2023F average Brent crude oil price forecasts ~20% from USD70/bbl and USD65/bbl to USD85/bbl and USD80/bbl, respectively. We also raise our Brent oil price assumption for 2024-2026F from USD65/bbl to USD75/bbl.
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