* Q3 2026 results:
- Revenue: VND2.5tn (-12% YoY; +2% QoQ).
- GPM: 20.5% (vs 31.1% in Q3 2025 and 18.9% in Q2 2026).
- NPAT-MI: VND478bn (-36% YoY; +23% QoQ).
* 9M 2026 results – upside potential to our 2026F forecast:
- Revenue: VND7.0tn (-18% YoY; 66% of our 2026F forecast), mainly due to weaker domestic sales. Domestic revenue fell 58% YoY to VND1.1tn (16% of total vs 32% in 9M 2025), while export revenue rose 1% YoY to VND5.9tn. In the export market, stronger P4 and TPA export value was largely offset by the decline in other non-IPC exports in 8M 2026, mainly DCP and DAP.
- GPM: 20.7% (vs 33.3% in 9M 2025 and 17.5% in our 2026F forecast).
- NPAT-MI: VND1.3tn (-47% YoY; 79% of our 2026F forecast). 9M earnings were ahead of our expectations, suggesting upside potential to our 2026F earnings forecast, pending a fuller review.
* Volumes: P4 exports were lower YoY while TPA exports surged, implying a continued downstream shift, broadly in line with our forecast: In 8M 2026, we estimate industrial phosphorus chemical (IPC) exports volume of 39.7k tonnes on a phosphorus-content basis (-5% YoY; 67% of our 2026F forecast), in-line forecast. P4 volume was 28.1k tonnes (-20% YoY; 65% of our 2026F forecast), while TPA was 43.6k tonnes (+73% YoY; 72% of our 2026F forecast).
* ASP: P4 and TPA prices rose further, beating our forecast: We estimate two-month Q3 2026 ASPs of ~USD5,400/tonne for P4 (+9% QoQ; +28% YoY) and ~USD1,400/tonne for TPA (+9% QoQ; +32% YoY). 8M 2026 ASPs were ~USD4,830/tonne for P4 (+16% YoY) and ~USD1,260/tonne for TPA (+15% YoY), beating our forecast by 10% and 8%, respectively.
* GPM recovered QoQ but remained 11 ppts below last year: Q3 GPM was 20.5% (+1.6 ppts QoQ; -10.6 ppts YoY), bringing 9M GPM to 20.7% (-12.6 ppts YoY) vs our 2026F forecast of 17.5%. Higher ASPs supported the QoQ recovery, while the YoY decline continued reflecting outsourced apatite ore after DGC suspended its captive mines and higher sulfur, electricity, coke, and ammonia costs.
* SG&A was stable QoQ: Q3 SG&A expenses were VND125bn (flat QoQ, -13% YoY), or 5.1% of revenue (vs 5.2% in Q2 2026 and 5.1% in Q3 2025). In 9M, selling expenses fell 18% YoY as staff costs dropped 30%, partly offset by a 74% rise in transport costs, while G&A expenses rose 19% YoY on higher staff costs (+24%) and other expenses (VND20bn, +143% vs VND8bn in 9M 2025).
* 9M 2026 financial income was VND576bn (+6% YoY; 80% of our 2026F forecast), including deposit interest of VND527bn (+18% YoY) and realized FX gains of VND49bn (-49% YoY). Financial expenses were VND62bn (-21% YoY; 71% of our 2026F forecast), comprising interest expenses of VND38bn (+31% YoY) and realized FX losses of VND24bn (-52% YoY).
* Disposal gain lifted other income: Q3 recorded net other income of VND15bn (other income of VND53bn; other expenses of VND38bn). We estimate ~VND48bn of the other income is a gain on fixed-asset disposals (VND332bn of proceeds vs VND284bn of estimated net book value). We attibute this amount may be related to DGC’s planned divestment of its ethanol plants, pending official confirmation from the company.
* Cash fell on dividends and Nghi Son capex; operating cash flow turned positive in Q3 as working capital eased: Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments (excluding accrued interest) fell to VND9.7tn, down 26% from VND13.1tn at end-2025 and 11% from VND10.9tn at end-H1. Key uses were VND4.2tn of 9M cash dividends and project spending. Construction in progress rose 80% from 2025YE to VND1.5tn, including VND1.4tn for the Nghi Son chemical complex (~59% of its VND2.4tn budget).
DGC’s Q3 & 9M 2026 results
| Q3 | Q2 | Q3 | QoQ | YoY | 9M | 9M | YoY | 9M 2026/ | 2026F |
Revenue | 2,817 | 2,415 | 2,469 | 2% | -12% | 8,521 | 7,009 | -18% | 66% | 10,598 |
Gross profit | 876 | 456 | 506 | 11% | -42% | 2,837 | 1,451 | -49% | 78% | 1,850 |
Selling expenses | -99 | -71 | -76 | 7% | -23% | -295 | -243 | -18% | 62% | -389 |
G&A expenses | -46 | -54 | -49 | -10% | 8% | -130 | -155 | 19% | 86% | -179 |
EBIT | 731 | 330 | 381 | 15% | -48% | 2,411 | 1,054 | -56% | 82% | 1,282 |
Financial income | 192 | 194 | 210 | 8% | 9% | 542 | 576 | 6% | 80% | 719 |
Financial expenses | -19 | -16 | -25 | 53% | 32% | -79 | -62 | -21% | 71% | -87 |
Others | -3 | -1 | 15 | N.M | N.M | -9 | 9 | N.M | N.M | 0 |
PBT | 901 | 507 | 581 | 15% | -36% | 2,866 | 1,577 | -45% | 82% | 1,914 |
NPAT-MI | 752 | 389 | 478 | 23% | -36% | 2,403 | 1,267 | -47% | 79% | 1,600 |
EBITDA | 810 | 400 | 447 | 12% | -45% | 2,645 | 1,263 | -52% | 73% | 1,733 |
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GPM | 31.1% | 18.9% | 20.5% |
|
| 33.3% | 20.7% |
|
| 17.5% |
SG&A/revenue | -5.1% | -5.2% | -5.1% |
|
| -5.0% | -5.7% |
|
| -5.4% |
EBIT margin | 26.0% | 13.7% | 15.4% |
|
| 28.3% | 15.0% |
|
| 12.1% |
NPAT-MI margin | 26.7% | 16.1% | 19.4% |
|
| 28.2% | 18.1% |
|
| 15.1% |
EBITDA margin | 28.8% | 16.6% | 18.1% |
|
| 31.0% | 18.0% |
|
| 16.4% |
Source: DGC, Vietcap
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