1. H1 2026 results:
* H1 2026 results came in at:
- Revenue: VND4.5tn (-20% YoY; 43% of our 2026F forecast).
- NPAT-MI: VND797bn (-52% YoY; 40% of our 2026F forecast).
*Overall, H1 results were below our expectations, mainly due to weaker-than-expected sales volumes outweighing better-than-expected ASPs. Although input-cost pressure remained substantial, H1 GPM of 20.8% was slightly above our 20.3% full-year forecast, suggesting that our GPM assumption already incorporates a large part of the cost headwinds. Nevertheless, weaker sales and lower-than-expected financial income imply downside risk to our earnings forecast, pending a fuller review.
* Q2 2026 results:
- Revenue: VND2.4tn (-17% YoY; +14% QoQ).
- NPAT-MI: VND389bn (-54% YoY; -5% QoQ).
* Export volume: In 5M 2026, we estimate DGC’s industrial phosphorus chemicals export volume, on a phosphorus-content basis, at 24.7k tonnes (-7% YoY; 42% of our 2026F forecast). Within this, P4 export volume reached 18.3k tonnes (-20% YoY; 41% of our 2026F), while TPA export volume rose to 24.1k tonnes (+66% YoY; 48% of our 2026F forecast).
* ASP: We estimate DGC’s 5M 2026 P4 ASP at around USD4,600/tonne (+10% YoY), approximately 12% above our full-year forecast in VND terms. TPA ASP averaged around USD1,170/tonne (+6% YoY), also around 12% above our full-year forecast in VND terms.
* In Q2 2026, DGC’s GPM contracted to 18.9% in Q2 2026, bringing H1 GPM to 20.8% (-13.6 ppts YoY; vs our 20.3% of our 2026F forecast). The margin compression was mainly driven by the full outsourcing of apatite ore following the suspension of DGC’s captive mines amid the ongoing investigation. Higher input costs, including sulfur prices, electricity, coke, and ammonia costs added further pressure.
* Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments declined to VND10.9tn, down 17% from VND13.1tn at end-2025. This was primarily due to accelerating project spending with construction in progress increasing 64% from 2025YE to VND1.3tn, mainly from the Nghi Son chemical complex.
* H1 operating cash flow was slightly negative at VND10bn, compared with positive operating cash flow of VND969bn in H1 2025. The decline was mainly driven by working-capital absorption, including (1) a 46% increase in inventories to VND2.5tn from VND1.7tn at 2025YE, which we see as a reflection of DGC’s shift toward imported and externally purchased ore, which could require longer procurement lead times and higher precautionary stock levels, and (2) short-term receivables increasing to VND1.9tn from VND1.2tn.
2. 2026 AGM documents
*2026 guidance:
- Revenue: VND10.1tn (-10% YoY; 96% of our 2026F forecast).
- NPAT-MI: VND1.6tn (-49% YoY; 79% of our 2026F forecast).
- While management’s revenue target is broadly in line with our forecast, their NPAT-MI guidance is significantly lower, which we attribute mainly to higher-than-expected input and production costs. Combined with the weaker-than-expected H1 results, the guidance indicates downside risk to our current earnings forecast, pending a fuller review.
* Investment and operational priorities:
+ DGC plans to invest VND2.4tn in the Nghi Son chemical complex in 2026 and targets operations in Q4 2026.
+ Other priorities include expanding high-purity phosphorus and electronic- and semiconductor-grade phosphoric acid capacity, upgrading the Hung Yen detergent plant, expanding the Dinh Vu warehouse, and increasing phosphogypsum reusing.
+ Management also plans to diversify ore supplies by maintaining imports from Egypt and seeking additional suppliers in Kazakhstan and Morocco.
+ DGC will restructure underperforming businesses, including Tia Sang Battery, the alcohol plant, and the Dak Nong fertilizer plant.
*Profit distribution
- 2025 dividend: 80% cash dividend, equivalent to VND8,000/share. The company has already paid VND3,000/share and plans to distribute the remaining VND5,000/share. This beats our forecast of VND3,000/share for 2025.
- 2026 dividend: 30% in cash and/or in stock, compared to our forecast of a VND1,000/share cash dividend for 2026F.
DGC’s Q2 & H1 2026 results
| Q2 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | QoQ | YoY | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | YoY | H1 2026/2026F | 2026F |
Revenue | 2,894 | 2,125 | 2,415 | 14% | -17% | 5,705 | 4,540 | -20% | 43% | 10,551 |
Gross profit | 981 | 489 | 456 | -7% | -54% | 1,961 | 945 | -52% | 44% | 2,141 |
Selling expenses | -87 | -95 | -71 | -25% | -18% | -197 | -166 | -15% | 38% | -436 |
G&A expenses | -43 | -51 | -54 | 6% | 27% | -84 | -106 | 25% | 59% | -178 |
EBIT | 852 | 342 | 330 | -4% | -61% | 1,680 | 672 | -60% | 44% | 1,527 |
Financial income | 186 | 172 | 194 | 13% | 5% | 350 | 366 | 5% | 43% | 850 |
Financial expenses | -45 | -13 | -16 | 26% | -63% | -60 | -29 | -51% | 39% | -75 |
PBT | 986 | 498 | 507 | 2% | -49% | 1,964 | 1,004 | -49% | 44% | 2,302 |
NPAT-MI | 842 | 409 | 389 | -5% | -54% | 1,652 | 797 | -52% | 40% | 2,029 |
EBITDA | 932 | 416 | 400 | -4% | -57% | 1,835 | 816 | -56% | 40% | 2,056 |
Margin |
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GPM | 33.9% | 23.0% | 18.9% |
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| 34.4% | 20.8% |
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| 20.3% |
SG&A/revenue | -4.5% | -6.9% | -5.2% |
|
| -4.9% | -6.0% |
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| -5.8% |
EBIT margin | 29.4% | 16.1% | 13.7% |
|
| 29.5% | 14.8% |
|
| 14.5% |
NPAT-MI margin | 29.1% | 19.2% | 16.1% |
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| 29.0% | 17.6% |
|
| 19.2% |
EBITDA margin | 32.2% | 19.6% | 16.6% |
|
| 32.2% | 18.0% |
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| 19.5% |
Source: DGC, Vietcap
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