- We cut our target price (TP) for CTR by 17% to VND114,300/share but upgrade our rating from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM as its share price has dropped ~20% over the past five months.
- Our lower TP reflects a 24% lower DCF valuation driven by a 15% cut in our 2025-32F aggregate NPAT-MI forecasts and a 1.2-ppts increase in WACC, partly offset by the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2026. We cut our aggregate earnings forecasts as we lower our 2024-32F operation revenue CAGR from 10% to 4% (reflecting the maturity of the telecom network operation business) and our assumed 2025-32F average towerco GPM from 31.3% to 27.0% (factoring in new towers with lower initial GPMs due to CTR typically allocating a higher portion of depreciation expenses during the early years of a tower’s lifecycle). Additionally, our higher WACC is due to a higher beta of the towerco and operation segments.
- For 2025F, we project 9% YoY growth in NPAT-MI and 15% YoY growth in EBITDA. Growth is mainly driven by a 41% YoY surge in infrastructure leasing revenue and 12% YoY growth in construction revenue. In addition, we expect operation revenue to remain relatively flat YoY, and revenue from system integration & technical services to see modest YoY growth.
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