We attend ACV’s AGM on June 30, with the key takeaways as follows:
1. 6M 2025 preliminary results (excl. take-off and landing - TO/L)
- Revenue: VND11.7tn (+19% YoY; 53% of our full-year forecast).
- PBT: VND5.9tn (-14% YoY; 44% of our full-year forecast), with Q2’s standalone PBT at VND2.6tn (-29% YoY; 19% of our full-year forecast). The weaker YoY results in 6M 2025 are mainly due to an FX loss of VND1.0tn (vs net FX gains of VND524bn in 6M24; 100% of our full-year forecast) as the JPY/VND rate has increased 13% YTD.
- For 2025G, ACV assumes a 20% increase of the JPY/VND rate, implying full-year FX losses of VND1.7tn (vs net FX gains of VND391bn in 2024; 170% of our forecast). While the company’s core business remains on track, elevated FX losses could pose downside risk to our forecast, pending a fuller review.
2. 2025 guidance
- Revenue: VND22.2tn (incl. financial & other income; +2% YoY), with core revenue (excl. TO/L) of VND21.6tn (+8.6% YoY; 98% of our full-year forecast).
- PBT (excl. TO/L): VND10.5tn (83% of 2024; 80% of our full-year forecast).
- TO/L: net earnings of VND358bn (-71% YoY; 23% of our full-year forecast). The lower-than-expected guidance is mainly due to higher-than-expected maintenance costs (i.e. Vinh airport, among others).
- Passenger: 119 million (+8% YoY; 98% of our full-year forecast), with international pax at 45 million (+9% YoY; 96% of our full-year forecast) and domestic pax at 74 million (+7% YoY; 99% of our full-year forecast).
3. Updates on key projects
- Long Thanh International Airport (LTA) – Phase 1:
+ Operation: Scheduled to commence operations in H1 2026.
+ Supporting infrastructure: The Government plans to break ground on the expansion of the HCMC–Long Thanh Expressway to 10 lanes (from the current 4 lanes) on August 19, 2025, with VEC as the project developer. The upgraded expressway is scheduled to be operational by September 2026, according to local media. In parallel, studies are underway for railway links connecting HCMC, Tan Son Nhat, and LTA to ensure synchronized transport infrastructure upon LTA’s launch.
+ Payback period (PPP): 14 years per the approved feasibility study. However, with current rapid international passenger growth, ACV anticipates that the PPP can be earlier.
+ Transition plan target: ACV targets shifting 80–85% of international and 10–15% of domestic passenger traffic from TSN to LTA. According to management, this translates to 15–16 million international and 5 million domestic passengers, meaning the transfer alone will utilize 80–85% of LTA’s Phase 1 capacity.
- T2 Noi Bai extension: Construction is on track and is scheduled to commence operations in the beginning of 2026.
4. Runway resolution and security transfer
- Runway asset management: Decision 2007/QĐ-TTg, which authorizes ACV to manage, use and operate runway assets invested by the State during 2021–2025, is expected to be extended through 2026, per management. ACV has completed the asset classification review and plans to submit proposals to relevant authorities on utilizing runway assets to increase State capital in ACV, with a target to finalize the process by end-2026.
- Security transfer to Ministry of Public Security (MPS): While security services accounted for 7% of revenue in 2024, they represented up to 20% of operation costs. Thus, the handover to the MPS does not affect ACV’s overall performance, per management. ACV and MPS are still coordinating to develop an appropriate transition plan.
- Bad debt: Post-pandemic receivables are now collected automatically via daily bank transactions, which limits new bad debts. Outstanding receivables mainly stem from the COVID-19 period. ACV noted that carriers such as HVN and VJC have repayment plans in place and aim to resolve most overdue amounts by 2025.
5. Profit distribution
- ACV plans to pay a 65% stock dividend from 2019-2023 retained earnings, with the distribution expected to be completed in H2 2025. Following this, ACV's charter capital will increase 65% from VND21.8tn to VND35.8tn.
- 2024 profit distribution: ACV is awaiting guidance from relevant authorities and will seek shareholder approval via written consent or during an EGM at a later time.
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