Morning Brief

VN-Index to re-test its MA20 at 1,265, TV2, PLX

Technical Analysis

- VN-Index fell more than 1% last Friday with strong turnover and closed at a 2-week low and under the MA20 support. The index is expected to recover today to re-test its MA20 at 1,265. Unable to cross this level could confirm the short-term bearish signal of VN-Index.

Fundamental Analysis

TV2 [Rating: BUY] – MOIT gives reminder of deadline for Song Hau 2 project (SH2P)

- Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad (TVHB) – a company wholly owning SH2P’s sole investor – provided an update on April 5 that they have received a letter from the Ministry of Industry & Trade (MoIT), maintaining the strict deadline for SH2P to have a financial remedy and commence construction by June 30, 2024.

- The MoIT letter serves as a reminder of the “developer-side default.” However, TVHB announced that all the lenders are actively working with Eximbank of Malaysia (the project’s mandated lead arranger) to finalize the financing procedures.

- We believe that there will be no further extension of the deadline, which also aligns with the implementation plan for PDP VIII.

- We currently have a BUY rating for TV2 with a target price of VND58,300/share. SH2P will contribute an estimated aggregate total of VND26.4tn in revenue and VND925bn in NPAT in 2024-2028F.

PLX [Rating: M-PF] – AGM documents

- Total sales volume guidance (including re-export) of 13.0 million tonnes (-9% vs actual 2023, +1% growth vs 2023 guidance). Historically, PLX’s actual sales volume is higher than its guidance by an average of 7% in 2014-2023.

- PBT guidance of VND2.9tn (-27% vs actual 2023). We attribute the significantly low PBT guidance vs actual 2023 figure to the absence of one-off income from the PG Bank divestment gain of VND642bn recorded in 2023.

-2023 Dividend payment: PLX raises 2023 cash dividend guidance to VND1,500/share (4% yield) from VND1,000/share.

- 2024 Dividend payment: PLX plans to distribute at a minimum rate of 10%. The dividend type (cash or stock) has not been determined yet.

- PLX currently has a TP of VND 37,000/share.

Other news

- On April 5, 2024, the Prime Minister issued an official telegram directing the SBV on credit management to achieve the 2024 credit growth target, the main message is basically the same as the one issued in March 2024. Also, in this telegram, we observe that Q1 2024 credit growth is around 0.9% YTD. Credit growth improves MoM. We expect this momentum to continue in the coming months.

Market overview

Future trading

• Commentary:

The price of F2404 had recovered from its support level of 1,254 to an intraday high of 1,265 before reversing. It closed at an intraday low of 1,252.1.

We expect F2404 to re-test the level of 1,254 before continuing the declines.

• Recommendation:

Sell stop at 1,254

Target price: 1,230

Stoploss: 1,260.