- PPC reported Q2 2025 revenue of VND1.9tn (-21% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI of VND6bn (-93% YoY). NPAT from power generation was VND6bn (-92% YoY). The sharp decline was mainly due to (1) a 13% YoY drop in sales volume, (2) a 52% YoY increase in maintenance & other expenses, and (3) the absence of dividend income in Q2 2025 (vs VND18bn in Q2 2024). These factors outweighed a 4% YoY increase in price spread, supported by an 11% YoY decline in the average material cost. ASP dropped 9% YoY due to a weak industry CGM price (VND1,045/kWh, -28% YoY).
- For H1 2025, PPC recorded revenue of VND3.5tn (-22% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND58bn (-77% YoY). NPAT from power generation was also VND58bn (-58% YoY). The YoY drop was due to (1) sales volume falling 18% YoY, while (2) maintenance & other expenses rose 12% YoY. Additionally, (3) no dividend income was recorded in H1 2025 (vs VND113bn in H1 2024). We attribute the lower sales volume to weaker mobilization. According to EVN, national electricity output in H1 2025 rose 2.7% YoY, led by a 27% surge in hydropower generation, while coal-fired power generation decreased 2% YoY. The rise in maintenance costs reflects PPC’s major overhaul plan for 2025, with VND832bn guided for the year. Spending is focused on Pha Lai 1 for extensive repairs and on Pha Lai 2 to enhance the efficiency of its S5 and S6 units.
- H1 revenue and reported NPAT-MI fulfill only 46% and 24% of our respective 2025 forecasts. NPAT from power generation completed just 30%. However, these results are broadly in line with our expectations. We see insignificant change to our 2025 forecasts, pending a fuller review, as we expect (1) dividend income to be booked in H2 and (2) lower H2 2025 maintenance expenses compared to H1 2025.
HND (PPC’s 27%-stake associate company): H1 2025 NPAT-MI completes 79% of our full-year forecast, beating expectations. HND reported Q2 2025 revenue of VND2.9tn (-14% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND242bn (-13% YoY). Despite (1) the YoY lower coal cost supporting GPM to improve to 10% (+0.6 ppts YoY), the YoY decrease was mainly due to (2) a 10% YoY decline in sales volume and (3) 62% YoY higher maintenance & other expenses. This profit decrease in profit was also driven by increased income tax expenses as the effective tax rate increased to 10% (vs 5% in Q2 2024). For H1 2025, HND recorded revenue of VND5.6tn (-10% YoY; 50% of our 2025F forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND408bn (-5% YoY; 79% of our 2025F forecast). The strong performance was driven by resilient GPM of 9.0% (vs 8.5% in H1 2024), reflecting lower coal costs, despite the 9% YoY decline in sales volume. We see potential upside to our current earnings forecast, pending a fuller review.
PPC’s H1 2025 results
VND bn | Q2 2025 | YoY | H1 2025 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2025F |
Sales volume (million kWh) | 1,116 | -13% | 1,971 | -18% | 49% |
Price spread (VND/kWh) | 251 | 4% | 255 | 6% | 81% |
ASP (VND/kWh) | 1,738 | -9% | 1,763 | -5% | 94% |
Average material cost (VND/kWh) | 1,487 | -11% | 1,508 | -6% | 96% |
Revenue | 1,940 | -21% | 3,476 | -22% | 46% |
COGS | -1,914 | -18% | -3,356 | -21% | 47% |
- In which, maintenance & other expenses | -168 | 52% | -237 | 12% | 59% |
Gross Profit | 26 | -80% | 121 | -46% | 32% |
G&A | -22 | -33% | -51 | -20% | 37% |
Operating profit (EBIT) | 4 | -96% | 70 | -56% | 29% |
Net interest income | 0 | N.M. | 0 | N.M. | 0% |
Dividend income | 0 | -N.M. | 0 | -N.M. | 0% |
Others | 1 | N.M. | 1 | 139% | N.M. |
PBT | 7 | -94% | 73 | -73% | 25% |
Income tax exp | -1 | -94% | -14 | -31% | 29% |
Reported NPAT | 6 | -93% | 58 | -77% | 24% |
NPAT from power generation * | 6 | -92% | 58 | -58% | 30% |
Source: PPC, Vietcap (*Vietcap estimate of NPAT from power generation = Reported NPAT - Dividend income)
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