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- We reiterate our BUY rating for NLG and reduce our target price (TP) by 8% to VND43,300/share. Our lower TP is mainly due to (1) a higher net debt balance at end-Q1 2025, and (2) a 0.5 ppt increase in our WACC assumption. These factors are partly offset by (3) the positive impact of rolling forward our target price to mid-2026 from end-2025.
- We slightly revise our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast down by 2%, primarily due to higher projected financial expenses reflected in the Q1 2025 results. We also lower our 2026F and 2027F NPAT-MI forecasts by 22% and 16%, respectively, due to lower property handovers from Mizuki Park in 2026-27F, partly offset by higher new presales recognition from Southgate.
- We forecast 2025F NPAT-MI to grow 27% to VND659bn (USD25mn), with the key drivers unchanged: (1) property handovers mainly at Can Tho, Southgate, and Akari City Phase 2 (P2), and (2) our assumed divestment gains from the 15% stake sale at Izumi City (41% of our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast).
- We maintain our 2025F presales forecast of VND7.2tn (USD277mn; +38% YoY), supported by sustained momentum in Southgate, the next phase launch of Izumi City, and ongoing Can Tho presales in the coming quarters, which will offset our rescheduling of Mizuki Park P3 to 2026F.
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