- Manufacturing remains strong, supporting solid IIP in October: The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew to 9.2% YoY in 10M 2025, mainly supported by strong growth of the manufacturing sub-sector at 10.5% YoY (10M 2024: +8.6% YoY). The continued strength in new orders could support production in the coming months while firms may expand production as higher overall demand is seen toward the holiday season (Christmas, the New Year, and Lunar New Year).
- Retail sales slowed in October due to flood impact: Retail sales of goods and services rose only 7.2% YoY in October (vs +9.1% YoY in October 2024 and a 9.6% YoY average in 9M 2025), but total retail sales in 10M 2025 still increased 9.3% YoY (10M 2024: +8.8% YoY). Storm No. 13 may further disrupt retail consumption activities in the central provinces. However, several factors could support retail sales in November, including: (1) post-storm reconstruction activities; (2) sustained international arrivals growth; and (3) stronger consumer demand toward year’s end.
- Public investment disbursement improved toward the year-end: In 10M 2025, State revenue and State expenditures were USD81.4bn (+28.5% YoY) and USD69.5bn (+47.1% YoY), resulting in a fiscal surplus of USD11.9bn. Disbursement for investment and development jumped 57.9% YoY to USD18.5bn, achieving 61.5% of the annual target. We expect the Government to accelerate public investment disbursement in the final two months of the year. This acceleration will also help create employment opportunities, generate spillover effects across related industries, and sustain economic momentum into early 2026.
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