Our view: We remain bullish on CTG’s earnings growth prospects given the bank’s strong and broad-based credit growth across segments/products as well as its impressive asset quality performance in 9M 2025. NIM remains the biggest uncertainty as CTG guides for broadly flat NIM in 2026 and mentioned rising deposit rates/COF as a headwind. However, we believe this is a sector-wide issue, and in our view, CTG is better-positioned than most of its peers to protect its NIM considering the bank's strong CASA performance and funding advantages as an SOCB. Overall, CTG remains one of our top picks in the banking sector.
Key takeaways
1. Credit
- CTG expects system-wide credit growth to reach 19-20% this year. For 2026, the bank expects the Government will maintain fiscal & monetary policies in a supportive manner of the economy and that system-wide credit growth may reach 16-18%,
- CTG’s credit quota is ~17%, and the bank’s current credit growth is approaching this level. As a result, CTG is more focused on optimizing its credit mix.
- 9M 2025 credit growth by segment:
+ Retail segment: +16.0% (40% of total loans), primarily driven by household business loans: +10.6% (59% of total retail loans) and mortgages: +18.2% (28% of total retail loans).
+ Large corporate segment: +13.2% (30% of total loans).
+ SME segment: +14.2% (22% of total loans).
+ FDI segment: +21.0% (6% of total loans).
- Regarding the Vinhomes Can Gio project, CTG provides both loans to the developer and mortgages. The bank will continue to look for good growth opportunities in the real estate sector, especially projects that fit the urbanization trends in Hanoi and HCMC.
2. Funding
- System liquidity, FX, interest rate expectations:
+ Typically in Q4, liquidity is tighter due to stronger credit demand from customers for payments, production, and business investment. The gap between credit growth and deposit growth remains large, also putting pressure on liquidity. One supportive factor will be the acceleration of public investment disbursement by the Government.
+ In Q4, the pressure on FX rates may cool down due to support from the US Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate cuts, and FDI disbursement and remittance flows to Vietnam in the last months of the year.
+ Deposit rates are under pressure to grow driven by large demand for funding mobilization to support production, business, and public investment. Lending rates for priority sectors are maintained at low levels to support the economy.
- CASA breakdown by segment:
+ Large corp: VND72.8tn (+6.7% YTD, 16% of total).
+ SME: VND109.6tn (+20.7% YTD, 25% of total).
+ FDI: VND76.9tn (+9.1% YTD, 17% of total).
+ Retail: VND 186.5tn (+10.0% YTD, 42% of total).
- Q3 2025 regulated LDR: 83.4% (flat QoQ, +120 bps YoY).
3. NIM
- CTG expects its NIM will be broadly flat in early 2026 vs the 2025E (by CTG) level with the potential for NIM to improve toward the end of 2026.
4. Asset quality
- NPL ratio by segment: Corporate NPL ratio: 1.15%, Retail NPL ratio: ~1%.
- For large corporates, NPLs are concentrated in sectors such as BOT projects in transportation. For SMEs, NPLs are concentrated on building materials, agricultural products, real estate businesses, and petroleum businesses. For FDI customers, NPLs are in household appliances.
- Group 2 loans are concentrated in the following sectors: accommodation and food services, construction, textiles, consumption loans, real estate business, food & beverages, and plastics. - Recovery income:
+ 9M 2025 recovery income reached VND6.8tn (+13% YoY). The bank continues to target recovery income of VND8-10tn for the full-year 2025.
+ For 2026, CTG expects to realize several large recoveries, which could improve recovery income relative to the 2025 plan.
- CTG targets provision expenses to be stable in 2026 and credit costs (provision expenses as % of loans) to improve as a result.
- In Q3 2025, the bank wrote off a modest amount of ~VND1tn, mainly for several BOT projects in transportation.
5. Others
- The bank has not observed any material impact from US tariffs on its customers. Loans to customers with exports to the US account for ~8.5% of CTG's total credit exposure.
- CTG’s CAR ratio was over 9.7% as of end-Q3 2025. The bank has proposed that the authorities allow it to retain all earnings in the coming period.
- CTG expects to control 2025 CIR under 30% with Q4 2025 CIR to increase vs the 9M 2025 level due to seasonal factors.
- CTG is in the final stages of completing its 44.6% stock dividend.
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